Coastal megacities battle impact of climate change

MANILA, Philippines - Thirteen of the world’s megacities are located in Asia. Majority of these are situated along major river systems and vast continental coastlines. Meanwhile, rapid urbanization and their location in coastal zones with low elevation have increased their exposure and vulnerability to the impact of climate change and geo-hazards.

Metro Manila’s recent experiences with Ondoy, Pedring and the monsoon floods demonstrate the urgent need for a comprehensive study on the growing complexity of the risks confronting its population. This critical need for an integrated risk analysis has become even more pressing due to recent estimates, which place greater Metro Manila’s population at 25 million by 2015.

Given this context, the Manila Observatory and the Ateneo de Manila University recently organized an international conference on “Coastal Cities at Risk (CCaR): Building Adaptive Capacity for Managing Climate Change in Coastal Megacities.”

The five-day conference, participated in by CCaR teams from Vancouver, Lagos, Bangkok, and the Philippines, highlighted recent multi-disciplinary research on integrated risk facing coastal urban agglomerations.

Speakers from the University of the Philippines Marine Science Institute (UPMSI), the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), and Rand Corp. shared their knowledge and expertise in the fields of disaster risk reduction, the economic impact of extreme weather events, remote sensing, and coastal subsidence and storm surge hazards.

The CCaR research teams of the five-year research project, International Research Initiative on Adaptation to Climate Change (IRIACC), are supported collaboratively by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC), the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR), and the International Development Research Center (IDRC).

The international research collaboration is now on its second year.

Principal Investigators of the project are Dr. Gordon McBean, president of the International Council for Science (ICS), and Dr. Anond Snidvongs, executive director of the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency of Thailand (GISTDA).

The Coastal Megacity Project team leaders are Deborah Harford (Vancouver), Dr. Wijitbusaba Ann Marome (Bangkok), Dr. Ibidun Adelekan (Lagos), and Antonia Yulo Loyzaga and Dr. Emma Porio (Manila).

Porio of the Department of Sociology and Anthropology of the Ateneo de Manila University and Loyzaga, director of the Manila Observatory, introduced the scientific research from joint teams of both institutions and the UPMSI.

“This research hopes to highlight the interconnectedness of the physical, social, health, political, and economic factors within an urban spatial context in the construction of risk to floods and other disasters. What is critical here is how the social and physical sciences are working together to have a deeper and more nuanced understanding of the overall dimensions of risk in a coastal megacity like Metro Manila,” Porio said.

“The teams have conducted parallel investigations to examine the dynamic and complex dimensions of risk and the need to build both coping and adaptive capacity. We have partnered with sectoral experts in order to establish a systems dynamics approach toward risk reduction,” Loyzaga said.

The research also looks at spatial patterns of commercialization, industrialization and the spread of urban poverty, Loyzaga said.

“The Environmental Geomatics and Regional Climate systems programs of the Manila Observatory are examining the potential linkages between vulnerability and exposure. It works very closely with our Regional Climate Systems Program in order to understand the changing nature of hazards due to land cover loss and land use change,” Loyzaga said. 

“The Department of Sociology and Anthropology shares its critical expertise on the socio-economic vulnerabilities of urban poor communities as well as the governance vulnerabilities of coastal cities and local government units in the face of climate change and flood-related disasters,” Loyzaga added.

Depending on the city typology, the hazards produce different physical impact depending on the geomorphology of the city: Marikina and Pasig have more faults and flood plains; Taguig has a lake alluvial; Caloocan, Malabon, and Navotas have coastal alluvial; and Quezon City is inland with major rivers or drainage ways.

Loyzaga noted that in terms of the data gathered for the social aspect, it shows that Metro Manila has the highest number of hospitals in terms of cities in the country, but it has the lowest number of barangay health centers where most of the middle class and poor people seek healthcare. Barangay health centers also serve as evacuation centers to these people.

The research also looks at patterns of commercialization and industrialization as an indicator of economic stability.

Loyzaga said, “Initially, these areas which are the centers of the city in 1972 head most of the larger industry in commercial development and you see a gradual shift outside the city to these peripheral areas. These became very interesting to us because when we look at poverty and the way it spreads, the intensification of these areas here in terms of the number of informal settlements seems to indicate that the industrialization and commercialization pushed (them) outside the city and actually created more poor. It represents a contradiction for us in the terms of the intuitive impact of the increased economic activity.”