The issue of climate change had been pushed to the fore of concerns in the recently concluded Group of 20 (G20) meeting, although as expected, no firm details were committed by the attending heads of the world’s most powerful economies on how to respond to the issue.
The final communiqué issued at the end of the two-day weekend meeting held in Rome were still general pledges, such as to “accelerate actions” on achieving net-zero emissions by or around the mid-century by “firming up” emission reduction plans or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) within this decade.
There was also little to offer by way of fulfilling a pledge to transfer $100 billion a year from wealthy nations to the imperiled Global South, countries that suffered the most from climate changes brought about by heightened use of fossil fuels in developed economies.
These tenuous pledges from the G20 casts a grim pall on the COP26 meeting, the first day of which comes at the heels of the closing day of the G20, but will run for a longer period of 12 days, mainly in closed door sessions in Glasgow, Scotland.
COP26 or the 26th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is on its crucial fifth year when an assessment is needed to gauge progress on agreements made during the historic 2015 Paris Agreement climate treaty. (The year 2020 is not counted because of the pandemic.)
As per the Paris climate pact, countries agreed to revisit and reassess their commitments every five years, and if needed, to accelerate action on the agreed goal to curb global warming by 1.5 degrees Celsius (1.5 C) benchmarked on pre-industrial levels of the 1800s, mainly by halving global emissions by 2030 and reaching net zero by 2050.
NDC review
Reports earlier released by scientists in preparation for the COP26 have placed global warming already at one degree centigrade, which means that countries have to do more in the coming years to keep temperatures rising beyond the agreed 1.5 C goal.
Already, the world cannot turn a blind eye on the physical manifestations of rising temperatures: extreme floods, super strong typhoons, heat waves, prolonged droughts, faster melting of ice caps, and unprecedented and prolonged wildfires.
Individual countries’ NDCs, which will be up for review and collation during the COP26, will need to be more explicit about plans on how to achieve the pledges.
Eyes are on the world’s top carbon dioxide (CO2) emitters (the US, the European Union, and China), whose plans of action will be instrumental in keeping the world’s temperature from rising faster than necessary to avoid even more drastic weather disturbances.
An assessment by the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), a consortium dedicated to measuring climate change mitigation targets, policies, and action during the last five years, gives the world’s largest emitters of harmful gases a thumbs-down.
Russia tops the notoriety list with a “critically insufficient” rating, as its emissions will continue to rise higher over the next decade with increased use of fossil fuel for the domestic economy and the ramped up production of oil for export.
China and India’s efforts are rated “highly insufficient,” as both countries continue to depend on coal for power generation. China last year commissioned 76 percent of all the new coal plants in the world, while India accounts for the second biggest number of coal plants currently under construction.
An “insufficient” rating goes to the US, Japan, Australia, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia. The US suffers from environment policy setbacks generated by the previous government;while Japan still lacks a firm plan to eliminate coal use by 2030. Australia is hemming and hawing about finite fuel use; Saudi Arabia is holding ransom a reduction of its oil production to maintaining stable petro-dollar earnings; and Brazil is being criticized for turning a blind eye on increasing deforestation.
Highly conditional
Where is the Philippines in all of these?
For starters, the Philippines was among the last of the 197 countries of the UNFCCC that submitted its NDC – in fact only last April 15 past the extended Dec. 31, 2020 deadline.
In the document penned by the country’s Climate Change Commission, the Philippines pledged to cut harmful gas emissions by 75 percent by 2030, a seemingly valiant stance by an aspiring middle-income economy within the decade.
A closer look at the Philippine NDC, however, reveals its highly conditional nature dependent on the availability of funds from the pledged annual $100 billion contribution of wealthy nations. In short, without foreign funding assistance, the country will continue to depend on coal use.
The Department of Energy’s energy plan over the long term has expressly supported a shift to renewable sources and a gradual tapering of new coal-fired thermal plants – but this is all premised on a robust entry of investments in non-fossil fuel electricity generating plants.
Currently, the country’s private power sector prefers coal over renewables, the technology of the former being tried and tested in a business operating environment. The DOE has been setting caps on new fossil fuel power plants, but may be constrained in future as power use ramps up with the economic growth regaining momentum once again when the pandemic is over.
The presence of Finance Secretary Dominguez in the COP26 portends of some intense negotiations to bag financing for solar, wind, and other renewable energy power generating projects, thus sealing our ability to accomplish the submitted NDC.
However, if no moolah is forthcoming, it’s as good as saying don’t expect any positive climate action from the Philippines.
Facebook and Twitter
We are actively using two social networking websites to reach out more often and even interact with and engage our readers, friends and colleagues in the various areas of interest that I tackle in my column. Please like us on www.facebook.com/ReyGamboa and follow us on www.twitter.com/ReyGamboa.
Should you wish to share any insights, write me at Link Edge, 25th Floor, 139 Corporate Center, Valero Street, Salcedo Village, 1227 Makati City. Or e-mail me at reydgamboa@yahoo.com. For a compilation of previous articles, visit www.BizlinksPhilippines.net.