Here come the robots

Across the world, most people feel that globalization is disrupting their world. There is a sense that most people feel it is getting harder to plan for the future because of so many unknowns. When I was in college, the internet age had not yet begun and my whole idea of the future is so different from what it is today. I wish that there was a book then that at least would have given  me a inkling of what the world would be like even just after 20 years. 

Today we are facing the next wave of innovation and globalization. I know that the lives of my grandchildren will be in a much different kind of world. No one book can accurately predict what the next economy and society will be like. But there are a few books that will shed some light, no matter how dim, on the kind of world that my grandchildren will live in. 

One such book is The Industries of the Future by Alec Ross. He is an expert on innovation and served as senior adviser for Innovation to then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. In his book, he talks of at least three major forces that will reshape business.

He shows how cutting edge advances in robotics and life sciences will change the way we work and live. He examines how the increasing application of computer code to new areas of the economy – in the virtual and physical worlds – will transform two spheres that are traditionally state monopolies: money and force. The application of code to commerce will provide new opportunities for the ordinary folks to receive, hold, spend or transfer money. Big Data will alter geopolitics. Land was the raw material of the agricultural age; iron was the raw material of the industrial age; and, data will be the raw material of the information age.

Robots

The term robot was coined in a 1920 play Rossum’s Universal Robots by the Czech science fiction writer Karel Capek. Robot derives its linguistic root from two Czech words, robota – obligatory work – and robotnik – serf- to describe in Capek’s conception, a new class of “artificial people” that would be created to serve humans.

As technology advances, they will kill many jobs. But Ross says: “Robots will produce clear benefits to society. There will be fewer work related injuries, fewer traffic accidents, giving the power of speech to children who are deaf and mute. It is a net good for the world “But the states and societies that do not redirect their labor force toward growing areas of employment will suffer. 

Many countries particularly those in Northern Europe are strengthening the social safety net so that displaced workers have hopes of re-emerging in a new field.” That means taking some of the billions of dollars of wealth that will be produced from the field of robotics and reinvesting it in education and skills development for the displaced taxi drivers and waitresses.

Nations have to accept the responsibility of keeping their people competitive in tomorrow’s economy. People are not as easy to upgrade as software. 

The Big Five in robotics in the world today are Japan, China, United States, South Korea where around 70% of total robot sales take place. Japan, the United States AND Germany dominate the market in high value industrial and medical robots while China and Japan are the biggest producers in less expensive, consumer oriented robots.

Right now there is a big gap in robotics technology between the Big Five  and the rest of the world. But this does not have to continue in its present trajectory. Many less developed countries in Asia and Africa have been able to leapfrog technologies and go straight to cell phones without first building landline telephone networks. This has happened in many parts of rural Philippines which are now being serviced by satellite television providers without having to build a cable television network. These same places could jump ahead to using robotics and drones without having to establish an industrial base.

Cultural differences

One of Alec Ross’s most interesting observation is that the degree which countries can succeed to the robot era will depend partly on culture or how people will readily welcome robots into their lives. He says: “Western and Eastern culture are highly differentiated on how they view robots. Not only does Japan have an economic need and the technology knowhow for  robots, but it also has a cultural predisposition. The ancient Shinto religion practiced by 90 % of Japanese includes a belief in animism which holds that both objects and human beings have spirits. Japanese culture tends to be more accepting of robot companions as actual companions than is Western culture which view robots as a soulless machines. 

In contrast fears of robotics are deeply rooted in Western culture. The fear of humanity creating things we cannot control pervades Western literature leaving a long history of cautionary tale. Prometheus was condemned to an eternity of punishment for giving fire to humans. When Icarus flew too high, the sun melted his ingenuous waxed wings and he fell to his death. In Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein, Dr. Frankenstein’s grotesque creation wreaks havoc and ultimately leads to its creator’s death.

This fear does not pervade Eastern culture to the same extent. The cultural dynamics in Japan is representative of the culture through much of East Asia, enabling the Asian robotics industry to speed about unencumbered by cultural baggage.”

According to Ross: “The rise of the internet economy has taught business leaders that very young people who grew up digital are likely the ones who are going to create the big internet companies. The same will hold true in many industries of the future I expect most of the billion dollar businesses in cyber and big data to spring from the minds of people in their twenties and thirties – those who grew up programming in a time of code war and the exponential growth of data.”

Creative writing class for kids/teens 

Young Writers’ Hangout for Kids & Teens on December 9 (1:30-3pm) at Fully Booked Bonifacio High Street.  For registration and fee details text 0945-2273216 or email[email protected].

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