The bosses speak

Now that his “bosses” have spoken, will President Aquino stop dangling the possibility of seeking a second term?

Or will his sycophants who are dreaming of six more years in power prefer to wait for more surveys, hoping that the results will be different? 

Perhaps they can commission their own self-serving survey. At the same time, they can launch a signature campaign and present to P-Noy a manifesto, signed by Liberal Party (LP) diehards, as proof that there’s popular support for his continued stay in power.

Those who become intoxicated with power hear only what they want to hear. These days some people even within P-Noy’s inner circle grumble that intoxication is setting in. Others grouse that he is easily manipulated.

His defenders counter that people tend to underestimate P-Noy and his best intentions.

Palace officials said yesterday that they haven’t given up on a term extension. This means waiting for the results of other surveys – mainly by pollster Social Weather Stations Inc. for the third quarter, and then by both SWS and Pulse Asia in the fourth quarter.

Will the SWS results be markedly different from those of Pulse Asia? There will surely be some differences in the figures, but they will likely be statistically insignificant. The results of surveys conducted on the same issues within the same period by the two principal pollsters tend to be similar.

December is the latest that the administration and its LP-led coalition can wait before making a final decision on political Charter change. Cha-cha, as we know, is needed to lift P-Noy’s single-term limit.

If by December there’s still no clamor from the “bosses” for P-Noy to stay longer in power, the LP will be stuck with Interior Secretary Mar Roxas as its standard bearer in 2016.

As the LP itself has indicated, the party is not enamored with the prospect. If Roxas is doing well at the polls, there would be no need for his party to float the idea of a second term for P-Noy. The idea has contributed to a fall in P-Noy’s ratings.

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The results of the Pulse Asia survey on the “presidentiables” for 2016 have kindled hopes within the LP camp that Roxas might yet catch up with his nemesis, Vice President Jejomar Binay.

Everyone expected a drop in Binay’s ratings because of the Senate probe into the Makati parking building. What’s also notable about the Pulse Asia survey, however, is that despite the daily bombardment of bad news about Binay and his clan, his numbers didn’t fall as precipitously as expected. In fact he remained on top, even with a longer list of potential candidates, and still with a hefty lead on Roxas.

Also notable is the drop in the ratings of Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano, tormentor of the Binay clan, who is seen to be spearheading the campaign against the VP. From five percent in June, Cayetano, who has announced his intention to seek the presidency in 2016, is down to one percent. As I wrote, accusations of wrongdoing may pull down the accused but rarely benefit the accuser.

Cayetano’s partner in the Senate probe, who wants to run for VP, is trailing the top contender in that race by a mile. Antonio Trillanes ranks fourth with seven percent, behind Sen. Grace Poe with 31 percent, Francis Escudero (19 percent) and Cayetano (nine percent).

Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada is with Binay’s United Nationalist Alliance. Erap wants his son Jinggoy to be the VP’s running mate, although this has become uncertain because of Senator Jinggoy’s current legal woes. If the alliance holds, Erap’s 10 percent will likely go to Binay.

The family of Grace Poe, who ran as an independent affiliated with the administration, is very close to Erap. We don’t know if she will support the LP’s standard bearer in 2016 or Erap’s candidate – or if she will run herself. Her ratings have fallen in the Pulse Asia poll on presidential contenders.

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Since Poe’s election, there have been reports that certain elements in the LP were considering her as their standard bearer in 2016. Roxas’ answer to the rumors, it seems, is to float the idea of a second term for P-Noy.

Now that the bosses have thumbed down the idea, Plan B is to hope that Roxas can narrow the gap between him and Binay.

It might help if Roxas took charge of the peace and order situation instead of carrying a sack of rice (while wearing a barong) in front of photographers. Philippine National Police chief Alan Purisima is distracted by scandals and someone has to take charge of public safety. But Roxas, who is said to be at odds with Purisima, is no Panfilo Lacson.

Roxas and the LP cannot allow the Pulse Asia poll to lull them into the smug belief that Binay’s ratings will keep falling.

They must remember that Erap had similar survey results when he was running for president in 1998. Scandal after scandal erupted, but to the dismay of Erap’s detractors, the slide in his numbers from dizzying heights stopped at a certain point and refused to fall further.

Veteran pollsters said at the time that Erap enjoyed the support of a solid 30 percent of the population – a formidable mass base for whom he could do no wrong. The pollsters proved correct: Erap coasted to a landslide victory.

Is Binay’s 31 percent his solid support base? The fourth-quarter survey will be more revealing.

The other question that refuses to die is whether P-Noy – especially now that political Cha-cha and a second term seem more unlikely – will, in his heart of hearts, support Binay.