Just the beginning
I came across an article on the CNN website, where a former Islamic militant granted the interview. He was a former member of the Abu Sayyaf Group, and personally knows Isnalon Hapilon, the supposed leader of the Maute group that has up to this day held its ground in Marawi against the Armed Forces of the Philippines. He warns that this may just be the beginning of a series of attacks by ISIS-aligned groups in the country, what he calls a jihadist war. The fact that the Maute group has lasted this long may embolden other groups to do the same.
He also voiced concern that for the first time, different militant groups in the country have come together. The current Maute group in Marawi is actually composed of different militant groups, including the Abu Sayyaf, as well as foreign fighters. Being once close to Hapilon, he knows of the brutality and cruelty of the man. He also confirms the ease by which logistics and foreign fighters can easily enter the country, through the porous maritime borders in the south. He also describes the attack on Marawi as a sort of "audition" for ISIS. They want to show that they are capable of the kind of cruelty that ISIS wants to see among its followers, in order to gain accreditation and hopefully support, both logistically and financially. ISIS is surely watching developments in Marawi, along with everything else.
The Marawi crisis has indeed exposed the shortcomings of both the government and the armed forces. While one may debate the so-called failure of intelligence, depending on whom you talk to, it is clear that the military did not expect this kind of ferocity from the Maute group. They did not expect them to be this well-equipped, and even well-trained in urban warfare. The Marawi crisis is already more than twice as long as the Zamboanga siege of 2014.
While the government is not exactly setting another deadline for victory in Marawi, they would prefer that the liberation of the city happen before President Duterte's next SONA. When victory does come, the government and the military would do well to heed the warnings of the CNN interviewee. If this is just the beginning, then how bad would future attacks be? There is no question that ISIS is establishing a foothold in the region. Hopefully, the joint sea patrols between Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines would greatly deter any more supply runs and support for the terrorist groups. This is also the time to ask for help from our known allies and friends. The goal is to prevent ISIS from establishing a foothold in the country, and to prevent the spread of extremism. Nobody wants to see Marawi, or any other city in the country become the next Raqqa or Mosul.
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