“Don’t panic. Relax lang.” Such “take it easy” public reassurances were often told to the Filipino nation by one of our country’s great leaders, the late president Fidel V. Ramos. Fondly referred to as FVR, the former Chief Executive was not one who easily pushed the panic button in times of crisis, real or imagined. Aptly described as “Steady Eddie,” he calmly handled with steely resolve each and every crisis and challenge he faced during his six-year presidency.
FVR’s police-military training and skills more than enabled his strategic thinking and planning. FVR required complete staff work (CSW) for planning contingency measures, with detailed preparations for fall back emergency scenarios. From Plan A, Plan B, Plan C, down the letters of the alphabet for every projected, surprise or unseen event, including unexpected complications.
Currently in the middle of his term, President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. (PBBM) is dealing anew with the evolving Middle East (ME) crisis. Spawned by the latest joint US-Israel preemptive military actions against Iran, the Philippines and the rest of the world are seriously affected by the renewed global tension, especially on crude oil prices.
Coming on top of our own domestic oil price hikes for several consecutive weeks now, we brace for the nth time from the impact of the latest global oil supply disruptions. Long before the newest ME tension, we have been groaning every now and then with the more than P1 increase in fuel prices.
The local industry is seeing that as much as P19 per liter fuel price increase might be inevitable with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz where major oil supply ships pass through from the ME. With the Oil Deregulation Law, the Department of Energy (DOE) could only promise to work out “staggered” pump price hikes. Can moral suasion perhaps make the local refined oil industry players agree to it?
Consumers are the first to feel the pinch of the domino effect of oil price surge – from higher monthly electricity charges, to more expensive transport costs along with the rest of the logistics chain kicking up prices of basic commodities from food to public transport fares, among others.
The country’s inflation rate as of February inched up to 2.4 percent. Much worse is the economic dislocation of millions of overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) across the world, the bulk of whom are remitting their foreign exchange earnings from these ME countries.
“Prolonged war in the Middle East could cause significant spike in inflation and a sharp decline in economic growth, globally,” warns Monetary Board (MB) member Benjamin Diokno. Diokno shared this warning as part of the highest policy-making body on monetary matters.
“The impact of the new crisis on the Philippine economy is much more severe compared to the impact of the four-year Russia-Ukraine war, primarily because of the former’s impact on OFW remittances and employment,” Diokno pointed out. He referred to the Russia invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the ensuing war that later on involved the intervention of the US and certain European nations.
“The probability of rotating brownouts is nil, given that the Philippines has ample generating capacity, though electricity rates will certainty rise,” Diokno added.
Diokno was then Bangko Sentral governor, but he cut short his term after he accepted in June 2022 to join the first set of the Marcos Cabinet. He served as PBBM’s first finance secretary. As such, Diokno headed the Cabinet economic cluster that assisted PBBM in navigating the Philippine economy out of the severe impact of the Russia-Ukraine war. A highly respected economist, Diokno speaks from his wealth of experience in various capacities in his previous government posts.
Despite dire projections of a protracted ME war, Diokno expressed guarded optimism on the macro-economic strength of the Philippines. “We will survive,” he asserted. Turning 78 years old later this month, Diokno is currently writing three books of socio-economic analysis of the past policies relevant in the present times.
In the aftermath of the latest ME war that erupted last Feb. 28, Malacañang announced PBBM convened an emergency Cabinet meeting. The first to come out with public assurances was the national security cluster led by Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro. In behalf of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), Teodoro assuaged public fears and assured the people there will be no spillover here of the ME war. Such fears were foisted by leftist groups opposed to the US military presence in the nine EDCA sites in various parts of the Philippines.
Appearing in our Kapihan sa Manila Bay news forum a day after the Cabinet emergency meeting, Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG) Secretary Jonvic Remulla described in broad strokes the readiness of the Philippine government to undertake the mass evacuation and repatriation of OFWs in the ME, if need be.
Remulla is a member of Teodoro’s Cabinet security cluster. Without revealing much, Remulla cited the Marcos administration has laid down “options 1 to 10” on specific contingency measures.
With 10 as the worst-case scenario, it is only then that a mass OFW evacuation comes in, Remulla clarified.
Remulla is awaiting further instructions from President Marcos, including if he would be dispatched to fly to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to supervise OFWs evacuation. PBBM already called up the UAE Sheik last Friday, ostensibly about the safety of OFWs. PBBM echoed the call of fellow world leaders for a peaceful end of the latest ME crisis. By batches, many of our OFWs have sought Philippine government assistance to be flown out of the strife-torn ME.
Before he flew to the US yesterday, PBBM initially approved a slew of government-wide implementation of measures from four-day workweek to fuel savings/reduction on transportation and electricity consumption. With the war entering its ninth day, the whole-of-government kicked into crisis mode.
Improved upon through the years, these existing contingency plans for ME wars of the past put into motion the whole-of-nation templates to get us all out of the present crisis. Stay calm and pray.