Pacquiao by TKO

Around 1pm today, the entire country will be celebrating local boxing’s biggest victory of the year when Manny Pacquiao wins by knockout over Juan Manuel Marquez. I just can’t see how the Pacman can lose in their rematch. With an almost perfect training camp sans all the distractions that bog him down, Pacquiao is going to be unbeatable.

We can expect Pacquiao to be his usual self, but this time with a more tactical approach towards the excellent counter-punching style of Marquez. We’ll see the Pacman take control of the fight by initiating the exchanges and being more than willing to get hit just to turn the fight into a slugfest. The key to a Pacquiao victory his how he’ll apply Freddie Roach’s strategy to reply to Marquez counter punching. The big difference in the first match was that Pacquiao was not able to consistently find an answer to Marquez’s brilliant counter-punching. I know that I’ve mentioned the term counter-punching so may times already, but it must be stressed since this is Marquez’s strength.

While Pacquiao will be able to tag Marquez with jab-straight-hook combinations to initiate exchanges, he’ll have to work on what to do after Marquez replies with his counters. This is something Pacquiao didn’t do in their first fight. He countered Marquez’s counters inconsistently and without a pre-set pattern or strategy for combinations. This was most likely a result of a lack of scouting or under-estimating the opponent before. I’m certain that Roach and Pacquiao are not going to commit the same mistake and have prepared for this. Marquez’s counter punching is hinged on catching Pacquiao when he’s open, often off-balanced and out of position after throwing a series of combinations. He makes Pacquiao look awkward in these situations. But if the Pacman is prepared for this, Marquez is going to be in serious trouble. I expect to see Pacquiao with fewer of his wild runs that leave him off-balanced. He’ll be working to set his feet square and always be in the right position to land punches in extended stretches of exchanges.

On the other hand, we can expect Marquez to apply the same excellent counter-punching style that he used so well against Pacquiao in their first battle and in his win over Marco Antonio Barrera. He’ll wait for Pacquiao to initiate the exchanges and will carefully pick his spots when to throw his counter jab-straights that will be enough to keep Pacquiao at a distance. Our worry for Pacquiao is that his defense still isn’t picture perfect due to his tendency to get into a street fight type of a brawl. This is where Marquez will score his points in the same way that he did in their first fight. The one thing that will bring Marquez down will be his willingness to mix it up against Pacquiao.

As the fight progresses, the one thing that will trigger the downfall of Marquez will be his willingness to slug it out with Pacquiao. I expect Marquez to be too proud of a boxer to apply the hit-and-run strategy that Barrera used against Pacquiao. Marquez will most likely not mix it up early in the fight, and will be content in playing the waiting game of the typical counter-puncher. But just like the first fight, he’ll go toe-to-toe by the fifth round once he senses that he’s successful in tagging Pacquiao consistently. Once he gets into this mode of fighting, the tide will turn towards Pacquiao’s favor who prefers this type of boxing.

But this time, Pacquiao will be better prepared for what will turn out to be a tactical fight. He’ll now have a concrete answer for Marquez’s counter punching when he stands his ground and replies with his own counter-punching ways. A highlight of his replies will be more punches to the body, something he didn’t do before. This body punching will wear down Marquez by the middle rounds, and this will open up his defense for easy hits on the face.

It will all be over by the ninth or tenth round with Pacquiao winning by technical knock-out. Kenny Bayless will stop the fight after seeing all the damage done by the Pacman on Marquez.

In the end, Pacquiao will prove once again why he’s the best among all boxers below 140 pounds.

Many people will say that I’m probably dreaming. But dreaming or not, it will be Pacquiao by knockout.

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Time-out: Happy birthday to Avelina B. Villaruel who turns 63 years old. Without her, The Freeman’s sports editor wouldn’t be here today. >>> You can reach me at [email protected] or 0923-342-8193 (for SunCell subscribers).