Continuity

Now that the elections are finally over, the Robredo supporters have the following options. First, they can accept the official results as final and move on. Moving on in this case means either giving up on the politics of this country and perhaps start planning to migrate. The next option is to continue believing that Robredo really won and start exploring the possibility of changing the results either through legal means or again going to the streets. The third option is to accept the results and start studying the reasons for this loss. They can start preparing for the next elections which is only three years from now.

This last option also includes accepting the present victory of Bongbong Marcos at the polls. The most crucial element of this option is to be able to understand and discern what made Marcos win such an overwhelming victory. In this option again, it is critical to understand why the C-D-E classes decided to vote for Marcos rather than Robredo, who was supposed to be the champion of their interests. This analysis of why the masses voted for the Marcos-Duterte tandem leads to other interesting questions. Did the tandem win because of Marcos or did Sara Duterte bring about the victory?

I am, of course, wondering if Sara Duterte ran for president, what would be the result of the election?  I don’t think the result for Robredo would have changed but interesting to see who would have won more votes, Sara Duterte or Marcos? I am still wondering why Sara Duterte did not run for president since she was doing so well in all surveys. So, in that aspect, the story of the 2022 elections may not yet be over.

But for those who have accepted the victory of Marcos, the most interesting question now is what will happen under a Marcos administration? If this group that has decided to accept the Marcos victory and still believe in democracy, then their only option is to accept the new government and prepare for the next elections. This may seem like a difficult choice and it is especially so for those who worked hard for the May 9 elections, but if we are to preserve democracy, there is no alternative.

The argument that the other side would not have accepted loss either is not a valid one. Aside from the different discussions among those who voted for Robredo on what to do next, the speculation now is, what direction will the Marcos administration take during the next six years?  Will we see a return to the Marcos Sr. administration or will we see an entirely new policy administration?

At this point, anything I say is a guess because I do not have a crystal ball nor am I in the inner circle of the new administration that I can divine the path of this administration. Will he try to replicate his father’s administration?

My guess is that if, at all, he will replicate the administration of President Duterte. While this may only be a guess, this path has some logic to it.

First of all, President Duterte remains popular, getting an approval rating of more than 60 percent even as his term nears its end. This shows there must be aspects of his administration popular with the Filipino masses.

Secondly, without declaring martial law, President Duterte was able to impose a certain strongman leadership that allowed him to get his way most of the time. For example, he was able to exert a certain amount of control over the media without the need to resort to drastic measures like martial law or military control.

One of the most viable critical directions for Marcos Jr. would seem to be to continue the policies of President Duterte.

Some early indicators would be the choice of the members of the Marcos Cabinet. This may, however, be an indication only of the early part of the six-year term. Remember that early Cabinet members of Duterte were a diverse body, with the right and the left represented in the ideological perspective. As time went on, the public face of the Cabinet began to change. This could be the same way with the presumptive Marcos Cabinet. The continuity, at least in the first part of the Marcos administration, would be a most likely scenario.

Some of these early names being floated for the Cabinet positions have surprised even many of the Robredo followers. This includes names like Cesar Purisima for finance, Clarita Carlos for foreign affairs, Arsenio Balisacan for NEDA.

At some point, if Marcos Jr. emerges as our next president, he will have to face the business groups and lay his economic plans. The economy will be his biggest problems throughout his administration as it is facing a ballooning debt, possible runaway inflation and, if there is global recession, it will be difficult to assume the Philippines will be spared from these consequences.

At this point, it does seem that politically, the safest path in the meantime is continuity.

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Young Writers’ Hangout on May 28 with Joyce Bernales (The Secret of Good Stories), 2-3 p.m. Last call as a few slots are available: Write Things’ six-day summer workshop “Writefest” (now on its 8th year) begins May 16 and continues on May 18, 20, 23, 25, 27. Open to 8-17 year olds, it will run from 3-4:30 pm every session.

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