At what stage are we in this pandemic?

It was a good Christmas season. With negligible COVID infections, people were more relaxed, less paranoid and moving about with relative normalcy again. Shops and restaurants were full and businesses were able to recover somewhat from 20 months of COVID-induced losses.

But just as we thought the worst of the pandemic was over – here comes the Omicron variant infecting millions worldwide, even those previously vaccinated. Within a week, travel bans were raised anew, restrictions on movement were intensified and people are homebound again.

This vicious cycle of starting and stopping our lives has become exhausting. Is this our new normal? Is this how we will live the rest of our lives?

Frustrated, I searched for answers. I came across a book entitled Apollo’s Arrow authored by Yale University sociologist Nicholas Christakis. Christakis traced the various stages of past pandemics, including the Bubonic plague of the 17th century, the cholera plague of the 18th century, Typhus and the Spanish Flu of the 19th century. He established distinct patterns that apply to us today.

Christakis postulates that worldwide populations go through three stages whenever it is overcome by a life-threatening virus. The first stage, which he calls the “Immediate Stage,” is when the full biological and immunological force of the virus decimates populations. The virus culls the weak and the vulnerable until such time as herd immunity is attained.

In today’s parlance, herd immunity will be reached when the greater majority are either fully vaccinated or have been previously infected.  Anti-vaccination advocates assert that being infected (and developing natural antibodies) offers superior immunity against COVID than vaccines. This is not the case. Studies show that mRNA vaccines provide 84 percent to 96 percent protection against the COVID virus as opposed to just 80 percent to 93 percent protection from natural antibodies. Worse, those who refuse to get vaccinated expose themselves to the 1 percent chance of death should they get infected.  It is a senseless risk since one can obtain immediate protection from through vaccination.

That said, global herd immunity is estimated to be achieved by the end of 2022. Omicron is actually accelerating this. Only then can we put the full biological impact of COVID and its many variants behind us.

The second stage is what Christakis calls the “Intermediate Stage.” This is when societies deal with the clinical, psychological, social and economic aftershocks of the virus. It is akin to the aftermath of tsunami where those affected must pick up the pieces and rebuild their lives.

Many of us may not fully grasp the wreckage of COVID. So far, 5.45 million have lost their lives, 51,600 of whom were Filipinos. But the scars on our bodies are serious and long lasting. Countless COVID survivors will continue to suffer from pulmonary fibrosis, cardiac problems, renal insufficiency, pancreatic malfunctions, neurologic and psychiatric problems. All these will take a toll on our quality of life and future productivity. It will also stress health care systems across the globe.

On top of this, millions of school children lost three years of classroom learning and this puts the entire Generation Alpha at a disadvantage. Responsive governments are responding by adopting a trimester schoolyear system for the next five years. The Philippines will do well to follow.

Economically, hundreds of millions have lost their jobs or their source of livelihood. As a result, we will see an avalanche of unemployed chasing fewer jobs. Loan defaults and/or loan restructuring will peak in the next two years and this will stress the banking system.

On a macro-level, national debts are on an all-time high, including that of the Philippines. Malacañang has so far acquired some US$35 billion in new debts to fight this virus which must be paid within the next 15 years. Government will have no choice but to implement high impact   reforms to increase our capacity to pay, including adding new taxes.

Globally, the economic cost of COVID now stands at US$16 trillion, which far surpasses the cumulative impact of the great depression.

The third stage is what Christakis refers to as the “Post-Pandemic Stage” and this should take place by 2026. Although this is the start of the great boom among economies, it is also the stage wherein people will begin to assess their humanity and look for greater meaning in their lives.

Movements such as “Black Lives Matter” and “Me Too” shall be more prevalent, just as anti-slavery and women’s suffrage were the issues of the moment in the late 1920’s and early 1930’s. By 2026, we expect a political reboot where issues such as disinformation and cyberlaws,    anti-free trade, LGBT rights and immigrant’s rights to be in the forefront of global debates.

At this stage, there will be a spike in early retirements as soulful pursuits will have precedence over financial pursuits. Job trends will reverse and there will be more jobs chasing less people.

Unlike the ravages of war where both life and capital are lost, in a pandemic, our capital remains intact. In other words, factories, farms and buildings remain functional with less people in the labor force to maximize their use. The shortage of labor will lead to a hike in wages across economies. Interest rates decline too since there will be less businesses chasing assets. All these set the stage for an economic boom.

So at what stage are we in the pandemic? We are not in beginning of the end of this contagion, as we all would like to think. Rather, we are only in the end of the beginning (or the end of the first stage). There is a long road ahead before we can declare this pandemic a part of history.

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Email: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @aj_masigan