Waves

Like most things in nature, pandemics happen in waves. They ebb and flow like rivers. They strike us like sound and light do: in waves.

In the 1918-20 Spanish Flu epidemic, the second wave proved deadlier and more debilitating. The second wave that swept through the US in the closing months of 2020 was far larger than the first.

The progression of the COVID-19 pandemic was never linear and therefore never really predictable. Over the next few days, for instance, many countries in Western Europe will take advantage of the Holy Week to re-impose lockdown measures.

It is, of course, more convenient to think in linear terms. But that is not how nature and this pandemic behave.

For five days in succession, the DOH tallied over 4,000 new infections daily. This caused alarm. Once again we are running short of hospital beds for coronavirus patients.

More concerning, the independent OCTA Research Group is projecting daily infections could run as high as 10,000 cases each day. That is a chilling number, nearly double the daily infection rate we recorded late July when medical workers called for a “timeout” and many areas were returned the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) status for two weeks.

A daily tally of 10,000 new infections will certainly outstrip our hospital capacity. Last year, this would have certainly meant the collapse of our health care system. Today, however, we have supplemental isolation facilities ready to back up the bed capacity of hospitals – although we do not have the buffer medical personnel to deliver the best medical care possible.

It is wrong to say, however, that the year-long national effort to combat the pandemic is a failure. Those who say so are animated by partisan malice. They want us to condemn the political leadership as an utter failure. This is part of the agitprop of relentless vilification. It does not popularize a science-based understanding of the wave-like phenomenon we are battling.

Battling this pandemic is a protracted process. In the tug-of-war with the virus, there will be advances and there will be retreats.

I recall this time last year, days after the lockdown was imposed, some relatives started organizing an Easter Sunday get-together. I warned them that the restrictions on movement could last months, even years. It was not going to be a quick maneuver to crush a contagious virus in a matter of weeks. That can only be the outcome of wishful thinking.

Some, on the other hand, would rather imagine the spike in the number of new daily infections as “moving in circles.” If we match the numbers of infections of the previous peak, they think it means we have circled around and returned to Square One.

True, it might seem the past year has been some sort of Groundhog Day where everything just repeats day after day. But that is only how it strikes us subjectively, especially when we are trapped at home doing the same things over and over.

Objectively, things changed. Our doctors have learned more about the virus and they have become better at treating the afflicted. Our death rate has decreased.

We have learned how to safely treat those confined in the isolation centers, determining through the use of large numbers when the infected ceased to be infectious. We remain deficient in contact-tracing although we are hopeful smartphone-based apps could help us perform on this aspect better.

Above all, vaccines are now available. In our case, the available dosages are few, although we hope to be administering them in the millions by the late second quarter. The vaccine supply problems we are experiencing is not unique to us. Developing nations all over the world are not getting enough vaccines just yet while rich nations such as Switzerland have hoarded 360 million doses for their 80 million people.

Vaccine nationalism is hampering the more even effort to inoculate people advocated by the WHO. But that variant of nationalism is the consequence of government’s responding to expectations of their own constituencies.

Social media is roost to some of the unhealthiest opinions that impede rather than help a science-based solution to the generalized health crisis we are experiencing.

The past few days, irresponsible conspiracy theorists have been circulating the proposition that the current surge in infections is a government ploy to force people to accept vaccination. That is a thoroughly malignant proposition.

First, the larger number of admissions demonstrates the higher daily infection numbers are real. Second, vaccine supply issues do not really dispose government to welcome hordes of people at the vaccination centers just yet.

There is no clear scientific evidence identifying causality for the current surge in daily infections. Some say it is due to quarantine fatigue, causing people to be more relaxed in enforcing health protocols. Some say it is due to the entry of new and more contagious variants. It is probably due to all of the above.

Government has restricted entry to the country even further, although this has proven to be an unsustainable strategy. We are told there are no plans to return to ECQ – although experts acknowledge this might become necessary if the surge escalates.

The brunt of the effort to force back the daily infection number falls on the local governments who are now asked to enforce “granular” lockdowns where infection clusters are identified. Such tightly focused restrictions on movement proved successful in densely populated areas such as Hong Kong.

Many among us have decided on “KKQ” (kanya-kanyang quarantine) as our patriotic contribution to this seesaw battle against COVID-19.