Going back to pre-COVID economic growth

If there is one parent who is most elated to the pilot-testing by January next year of the resumption of face-to-face learning at schools, it is National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) “acting” Secretary Karl Kendric Chua. As far as the Philippines is concerned, Chua sees this as a good signal showing our economy is slowly being reopened with vaccines now developed to battle the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

It was during the 45th Cabinet meeting at Malacanang last Monday when Department of Education (DepEd) Secretary Leonor Briones recommended to initially resume the face-to-face classes on pilot basis at selected schools throughout the country. Both Briones and Chua are members of the Inter-Agency Task Force on the Management of the Emerging and Infectious Diseases (IATF-MEID), the policy-making body that regularly evaluate the quarantine guidelines.

During our Kapihan sa Manila Bay virtual news forum last Wednesday, the acting Socioeconomic Planning Secretary admitted the Philippine economy and the rest of the global community suffered double-digit negative growth for the past ten months. Since the COVID-19 pandemic started this year, the world economy grinded exceedingly slow as borders closed down. Even the biggest economies in the world like the United States, China, Russia, the United Kingdom etc. likewise continue to be hobbled by the deadly contagion.

But Chua hastened to cite the strong macro-economic fundamentals in our country before the COVID pandemic struck have cushioned of the Philippine economy from far worse consequences of the lockdowns. A member of the economic technocrats of President Rodrigo Duterte, Chua credited these strong macro-economic fundamentals to structural and fiscal reforms implemented for the past three years under this administration.

Chua conceded the Philippine government has implemented what he described as “the longest, broadest and deepest” quarantine measures since the COVID-19 pandemic struck us. Following the outbreak of the COVID-19 contagion, President Duterte reactivated the IATF and placed the entire country under a state of public health emergency and first imposed a Luzon-wide enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) – or euphemism for hard lockdown.

The President subsequently expanded the quarantine coverage especially in other parts of the country where local transmissions of COVID-19 infection have escalated. For the past few months, the Chief Executive gradually eased the quarantine restrictions upon the recommendations of IATF while imposing minimum health protocols to manage the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Among these quarantine measures that still remain in force though is the ban on face-to-face classes in all public and private schools – from kindergarten all the way to colleges and universities since March 15. As a matter of public health emergency policy, the Chief Executive declared schools could only return to the face-to-face classes if there are already anti-COVID vaccines.

The Education Secretary initiated the restart of the face-to-face classes, heeding the mounting calls from lawmakers to do so gradually in areas of the country where the COVID-19 cases have been under control already, if not prevalent. Backed by the official communication issued earlier this month by the United Nations International Children’s Educational Fund (UNICEF), Briones pointed to a recent global study using data from 191 countries that “showed no association between school status and COVID-19 infection rates in the community.” Students are more likely to contract COVID-19 at home than in school, she pointed out.

With the endorsement of the IATF, President Duterte finally relented to allow face-to-face classes though on limited basis. As recommended to him by the DepEd, schools will be selected on the basis of those located in areas around the country that are considered as low-risk of possible resurgence of the COVID-19 contagion.

Out of 61,000 schools, Briones announced there would be 1,114 schools “nominated” to take part in the dry run of face-to-face classes. Briones cited anew the UNICEF statement urging all governments “to prioritize reopening schools and take all actions possible to make them as safe as possible.”

This development was welcomed no less by a family man like the NEDA chief who relates himself as in similar situation with many Filipino parents trying to cope with the “blended learning” method adopted by DepEd. Since his son is still in kindergarten, Chua cited, either him or his wife, has to assist their child on this kind of distance-learning method through the internet, or online teaching as one of the safest modes to avoid COVID-19 infection.

The Philippine population is predominantly young Filipinos averaging at 25 years of age and many of them are still in schools. Prolonging the use of distance-learning methods such as the use of self-learning modules, he warned, will affect national productivity in the long-term as parents stay out of the jobs market longer in order to help their children. And children themselves, he added, do not learn at the optimum level.

“We listened to the experts and the conclusion of the experts is that it is manageable to have our children go back to school in the least risky areas…If we can prove that the children can and will be safe, we can continue,” he stressed.

On personal basis, the 42-year-old NEDA chief is looking forward that their five-year-old son will soon enjoy the normal method of learning at school and interacting with classmates and teachers.

Certainly, methinks the same way as the NEDA chief that there is no replacement for face-to-face learning.

Also now tabled for discussion at the IATF level, Chua disclosed, is the eventual relaxation of the “stay at home” age group to let them go out more freely under COVID-safe environment. With a consumption-led economy, the NEDA chief counts on it to bring back the country to the growth track that it was in the pre-COVID years.