Coronavirus: Changing lives

In less than three months since it started in China, coronavirus has travelled around the world affecting every continent. Lifestyles have either changed or are changing very quickly. This is the quintessential “black swan,” a phenomenon that no one could have foreseen. 

For the past decade we have been inundated with books that attempt to tell us what the future will be like. I have written and given talks on emerging risks.  This list includes technology, artificial intelligence, climate change and threats to democracy. Coronavirus has reminded us that the world is not as controllable as it appeared. I recently read an article by Henry Mance that illustrates, in a simple way, how lifestyles have been changed.

“You can find anything in Heathrow (London) airport if you walk far enough. Near Terminal 2, past the bus station under a flyover you can even find God.” The airport chapel is a windowless stone bunker located down a flight of stairs. Here at Monday lunchtime, I joined a dozen airport employees for a Catholic mass. It was a surprisingly tender surreal service....On the way out I considered buying a postcard of St. Christopher,  patron saint of travellers.

Most air passengers see no need for such rituals. For decades crossing continents has been an act of faith; it’s been a fact of life. Flying seems so simple that even a small delay can lead us to rage on social media. It is so mundane that you can partly do it yourself: check yourself in, put your own labels on your bag, pick your own seat on the plane”

Passengers have stopped applauding when they get to their  destination safe and sound. How many still wonder that you can go to another country to attend a wedding or a funeral.  And then came coronavirus. Airports are eerily empty and airlines have cancelled flights and laid off personnel. This virus accomplished what a series of airline crashes and terrorist acts was not able to do – put the fear of flying in our everyday lives.

The past few decades have seen noted writers like Harari talk about the boundless opportunities for humankind in the future as we learn to harness technology and, hopefully, address climate change.  They talked of a future where diseases can be eradicated and people increase their immunities to every known form of sickness.

A small group of scientists, technologists and philosophers have been recently arguing that humanity faces the risk of extinction as a result of its own doing. The Oxford philosopher Toby Ord analyzed the existential risks facing humanity. He says that in the 20th century the only real threat to the world was nuclear war. Now there are several, all of our own doing – climate change, artificial intelligence, biowarfare. Even this group did not foresee pandemic as a “black swan”. 

Aside from lifestyles, the early effects of the coronavirus have been on business and economics. At the start of this epidemic, most investors and economists thought the economic impact of COVID-19 would be limited to China and those whose supply chain were dependent on that country. The spread of the disease to South Korea, Iran, Italy and Japan was a warning that the economic effects could be global. This past weekend, the United States became the latest victim and American media, like CNN, were now calling this a pandemic and not just an epidemic. 

More economists are forecasting weak economic activity in the next quarters as quarantines and restrictions curtail activity. Some estimates of global  growth this year are falling towards 1.0 percent-2.5  percent which means the world is on the verge of a recession.The Institute of International Finance notes that under its worst case scenario, global growth would approach 1 percent down from 2.6 percent last year and the weakest since the global financial crisis of 2008.

Those persons making economic predictions should keep in mind that, at this point, it is virtually impossible to predict how the virus will spread in the next months or even weeks. No matter what happens, economists are already predicting that the European Union will have a recession primarily driven by the severe economic problems of Italy. 

Most businesses are already preparing for prolonged closures. The alternative is usually work from home. This may be feasible for companies; but, this poses a problem for average Filipino workers.  Millions of Filipino workers are paid on a daily basis and are not paid when they do not work. Most of their jobs in factories and shops cannot be done at home. Any prolonged closure of businesses will make life extremely difficult for these millions of daily paid workers and contractual workers. 

In a recent editorial of the Financial Times, it said that the first COVID-19 vaccine candidates are poised for testing in animals and then human volunteers within two months but they must undergo clinical trials for long enough to assure that they immunise safely. That will take a year or more. This is too long a wait.

Perhaps the best thing to do is go back to my story at the start of my column: visit the chapel, attend a mass and pray for a miracle.

Creative writing classes for writers of all ages

Young Writers’ Hangout on March 21 with Roel SR Cruz on setting, “From Middle-Earth to the MCU and Back” (1:30 pm-3pm; stand-alone sessions) and on March 28, a workshop on Writing Children’s Stories with awardwinning  author Mailin Paterno at Fully Booked BGC. For details and registration,  email [email protected].

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Email: [email protected]