How far will Duterte go on VFA, peace talks issues?

Among all of his declared objectives – or promised “legacies” to the people – at the beginning of his presidency in 2016, Rodrigo R. Duterte has shown singular persistence and obduracy in pursuing his highly controversial “war on (illegal) drugs.”

Despite withering criticisms and condemnation, locally and internationally, particularly over the tens of thousands of mostly poor people killed in the anti-drug drive; despite the souring of the country’s relations with traditional allies such as the United States and European nations; and despite his having acknowledged that he couldn’t win the war on drugs even up to the end of his term in June 2022, Duterte is not letting go of it. He oddly equates his unrelenting though unsuccessful campaign with the “preservation of my people.”

The war on drugs led to Duterte’s unilaterally withdrawing the country from its membership in and adherence to the treaty dubbed as the Rome Statute, which established the International Criminal Court (ICC). He did so after the ICC chief prosecutor, acting on information/complaints filed against him regarding the drug-related killings, decided to make a preliminary examination.  Nonetheless, invoking the relevant ICC rules, the prosecutor has proceeded to carry out the examination that may, or may not, lead to indicting Duterte for alleged crimes against humanity. The examination may be concluded this year.

On his two other declared objectives – a) to resume and complete the long-suspended GRP-NDFP peace talks to attain “just and lasting peace” and b) to pursue an “independent” foreign policy – Duterte has not been as persistent and obsessed as he has been on his war on drugs.

Nonetheless, he hasn’t altogether let go of either objective. But he also hasn’t been able to fully articulate or spell out even the rudiments of such objectives.

However, on these two issues President Duterte has demonstrated an unusual determination to go against the opposition expressed by members of his Cabinet, including his closest advisers.

On his order last December to initiate continuation of the GRP-NDFP peace negotiations, which he had formally “terminated” in November 2017, the president pointedly remarked that he wanted to continue the peace talks “not for the military or the police” but for the people.

Both his national security adviser and his adviser on the peace process have publicly opposed the resumption of the negotiations. They even viciously attacked the draft agreements on social and economic reforms already initialed by the negotiating parties – up for submission to the negotiating panels once the peace talks formally resume.     

And in ordering last month the filing of an official notice to the United States government for the termination of the 1999 RP-US Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA), Dutere ignored the contrary positions of his defense and foreign affairs secretaries, among other officials, who instead recommended only a review of the military agreement.  Under the VFA (deemed as a treaty by the Philippines concurred in by 2/3 votes in the Senate, but considered by the US merely only as an executive agreement), the termination will take effect 180 days after official acknowledgment by the US  of the notification, which falls in August.

In both instances, questions have been raised how far would President Duterte go. In the case of the VFA, would he also terminate the 2006 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA)? This executive agreement allows the US military to build facilities within at least five Philippine military bases/camps and store war materiels therein; access to such facilities is off-limits to Filipinos, military and civilian alike.  Beyond that, the bigger question is: Would Duterte move to abrogate the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT), the mother agreement of both the VFA and the EDCA? Doing that, without negotiating any new similar agreement, would mean cutting off military ties with the Americans for good.

Meantime, the Armed Forces of the Philippines has announced , pending the formal termination of the VFA, that the scheduled Philippine-US Balikatan exercises involving 10,875 troops (6,229 from the US, 4,302 from the Philippines, and 44 from Australia) will push through in May. The AFP spokesperson added that all other joint Phl-US military training within the 180-day period will proceed as scheduled.

As for the GRP-NDFP peace talks, President Duterte finally brought up the matter of pursuing them to the Cabinet in its regular meeting last Monday, according to DILG Secretary Eduardo Año.

Speaking at a press conference in Legaspi City on Thursday, Año said Duterte told the Cabinet he was willing to hold a one-on-one talk with Jose Ma. Sison, the chief political consultant of the NDFP peace panel. As to when that would take place would depend on the result of backchannel or informal negotiations with the NDFP, presumably either scheduled or already ongoing in Europe. 

The NDFP panel has suggested that all important matters involving the formal peace negotiations be rigorously discussed and basically agreed on during informal/backchannel meetings before these are submitted to the panels.

“Joma can come home. We will hold a man-to-man talk alone where he can lay down all things he wanted and will talk [about] what is good for the country,” Año quoted Duterte as saying at the Cabinet meeting.  He did not elaborate.  He made it clear, however, that although he preferred to have “localized peace engagements,” he supports the President’s move.

No official statement has come from Malacañang on the matter. However, in December Duterte had already publicly announced his intention to talk personally with Sison, ahead of the resumption of the panel-to-panel formal negotiations.  Sison has suggested a neutral venue, such as Hanoi, but has expressed openness to meeting with Duterte in Manila, after certain relevant issues have been ironed out and mutually agreed on.

Besides letting the Cabinet in on what he intends to do, another encouraging step President Duterte has taken is to reconstitute the GRP peace negotiating panel, adding the name of Executive Secretary Salvador Medialdea as a member. That move speaks volumes about how serious he is in wanting to resume and push forward the GRP-NDFP formal negotiations.

*      *      *

Email: [email protected]