Flashpoint

As the rest of the world celebrated the dawn of a new year, the US embassy in Baghdad was under siege from an angry crowd outside its walls.

The angry crowd was protesting US air strikes targeted at facilities in Syria of the Iranian-supported Kataib Hezbollah militia. Washington holds this militia responsible for missile attacks on US military facilities. The air strikes killed or injured scores of Shiite militiamen.

Many in the crowd that breached the outer walls of the embassy were in fact members of this militia. The embassy is located in the heavily fortified Green Zone in Baghdad. It is not possible to access this zone without going through checkpoints manned by the Iraqi army.

As the crowds assaulted the outer walls of the US embassy, images of the Benghazi incident were quickly recalled. In Benghazi some years back, a mob attacked the US consulate resulting in the death of the resident American ambassador. Haunted by those images, the US military rushed reinforcements from Kuwait to beef up the defenses of the Baghdad embassy. The diplomats were evacuated hastily.

The violent protests outside the embassy walls stretched for nearly two days. During all that time, Iraqi security forces were nowhere to be seen. These forces arrived at the scene only after the violent mobbed had pulled back.

Now there are insistent questions raised in Washington about the readiness of the Baghdad government to protect US interests in the war-torn country. Iraq is now governed by representatives of the Shiite majority and is perceived to be leaning toward Iran.

The current government in Baghdad has been weakened by weeks of violent street protests against deteriorating economic conditions in Iraq. Hundreds were believed killed during these protests. The government in place in Baghdad is a lame duck. The prime minister has offered to resign to help calm public outrage.

Shiite Muslims constitute the majority in Iraq. The Sunni minority, during the time of Saddam Hussein, held power. After the US invasion, Sunni militants joined the Islamic State movement.

In Syria, the Shiites are a minority. But they hold power through the Assad regime. The Assad regime also relies on the support of the Hezbollah Shiite militia based in Lebanon. Both the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Syrian Katib Hezbollah militia are armed and funded by Iran.

As the US tries to militarily withdraw from the region in the face of the defeat of the anti-Assad forces (including the largely Sunni Islamic state), Russia began playing a stronger role as protector of the regime in Damascus. A virtual alliance between Russia, Turkey and Iran is now in effect in this strategic region.

When Donald Trump acceded to Turkey’s demand to pull out US forces in Northeast Iraq so that the Turkish Army could cross the border and establish a “safe zone”, the US basically folded its military presence in the area. The Syrian Kurds, erstwhile allies of the US against the Assad regime were betrayed. The Turkish Army swept across the border into Northeastern Syria while the Russians increased their military presence in the area.

Weak hand

When Trump agreed to withdraw US forces in Northeastern Syria, he basically played into the strategic plan of the de facto Iran-Syria-Russia axis. The US now has the weakest hand in the geopolitics of this area. The violent assault on the US embassy in Baghdad underscores that.

While the rest of the world was preoccupied with the Christmas holidays, Ankara announced it was sending military force to Libya to help stabilize the situation there. That is an audacious move. Turkey has been elevating its profile in a region the US could no longer control.

In the Middle East today, the regional powers – Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran – have been ceaselessly maneuvering to extend their respective spheres of influence. Russia, meanwhile, has been expanding its influence through its de facto alliances with both Turkey and Iran.

Iran, over the past few years, has supported Houthi rebels in Yemen. The continuing civil war in that country kept the Saudi armed forces preoccupied and unable to project influence in the vital Iraq-Syria theater. 

Turkey, along with Russia, basically propped up the Assad regime in Damascus. There was a time that the Assad regime was on the ropes, fighting both the democratic and Kurdish forces supported by the Western powers and the radical Islamic State that drew support from the Sunni communities in both Syria and Iraq.

Turkey will now begin playing a more assertive role in Libya, filling the vacuum the Western powers proved unable to fill. We see here shades of the old Ottoman Empire where the Turks reduced all the Arabic countries into vassal states.

The US, the UK and France are losing influence in this volatile but strategic region much faster than they care to admit. Russia, long deprived a role in this region, is expanding its foothold as Egypt retreats into a passive role. Saudi Arabia is pinned down by the unsolvable war on its southern frontier.

US isolationism, embraced by the Trump presidency, is creating enough power vacuums in this strategic region that aspiring regional powers are only too glad to fill. The rapidly shifting geopolitics in this region suits the political lords in Ankara and Tehran well. It enables them to convert their impressive military forces into actual political influence in regional outcomes. 

Israel is, to be sure, terrified by the increasing influence of Iran – an Islamic state dedicated to the eradication of the Jewish state. Iran aspires for nuclear capability to do exactly that.