The future of People Power

The recent passing away of Nene Pimentel has made me more aware that many of the pillars in the struggle against the Marcos dictatorship have now passed away. Aside from Nene I refer to political giants like Jose Diokno, Ninoy Aquino, Corazon Aquino, Soc Rodrigo, Manuel Roxas, Jovito Salonga, Ramon Mitra, the Laurel brothers Pepito and Salvador; publisher Chino Roces, newscaster Jose Mari Velez, student activists like Ed Jopson, and human rights lawyers Bobbitt Sanchez and Joker Arroyo. 

It is important that the new generation will keep their legacies alive. I wonder If the era of People Power has ended. Has it been replaced by the rise of populism? Has the rule of law been replaced by the rule of the strong man? Has the world really lost faith in liberal democracy?

 It is true that in the last decade, the world has seen an upsurge in populism with the rise of rulers like Vladimir Putin in Russia, Xi Jinping in China, Bolsonaro in Brazil, Trump in the United States, Erdogan of Turkey and Modi in India. 

In the last few months, however, the world has seen the resurgence of what could be called people power. This is a new term that became popular after the People Power Revolution in the Philippines in the early 1980s. The more generic name, however, is “ nonviolent revolution” which is defined as a revolution using mostly campaigns with civil resistance including various forms of protest to bring about a departure of government seen as entrenched and authoritarian. These types of revolution have similar goals, gaining or regaining democracy, human rights or national independence. These features – non violent methods and democratic goals – make this very different from a bloody revolution or a coup d’etat.

This year there have been civil resistance in several countries: Sudan, Morocco, Russia, and France. In Sudan and Morocco there have been partial victories wherein the protest movements were able to force the resignation of the nation’s rulers. In Russia, the protest movement was suppressed violently and its leaders imprisoned. In France, the yellow vest protest movement lost public support and Macron was able to defuse the situation by starting government reforms and going on a speaking and listening tour throughout the country. 

There are protest movements that are ongoing in Hong Kong, Venezuela, Lebanon, Catalonia (Spain), United Kingdom, Chile, and Ecuador. Hong Kong’s people revolution actually started five years ago with the Yellow Umbrella Movement which was primarily a student protest. Today, it includes the majority of the population. Venezuela’s civil resistance looked promising at the start, but it has momentarily quieted down. However, predictions are that it will resume again at some future date because the government has not implemented serious reforms. Catalonia and its capital, Barcelona, have been struggling for independence for several decades now. Half a million people, out of a population of seven-and-a-half million joined a Catalonia-wide rally. In Lebanon and Ecuador, the rallyists are now focusing mainly on economic issues; but, this can easily grow into a movement to replace governments. In the United Kingdom, a million people took to the streets in London to agitate against Brexit. The Liberal Democratic Party, the third largest is now agitating for opposition to Brexit. If the UK government approves Brexit, i.e. leave the EU, Scotland is expected to agitate for independence . 

People power happens when the resistance is primarily nonviolent, the authority is from the grassroots and is usually manifested through national street demonstrations, work stoppages, and general strikes. A coup d’etat can be a nonviolent revolution but it is not based on people power. Another feature of people power is that the movement may have a symbolic leader but its success is not based on the will of one person. The assassination of Ninoy Aquino did not stop the resurgence of the people power movement in the Philippines.

The conventional wisdom is that the most effective tool for a revolution is through violence. The belief is that no dictator is going to give up power without a fight. There have been numerous examples of tyrannical governments viciously crushing opposition. Some recent examples are China’s crushing the Tiananmen Square protests; Assad crushing the Arab Spring in Syria; and Maduro‘s defeat of street protests.

In a 2014 study of 323 political movements since 1900, Erica Chenoweath wrote that nonviolent movements have a 53% success rate, a partial success rate of over 20% and about a 20% failure rate. For violent campaign, the results of the study showed the success rate was 23%, partial success was 20% and complete failure 60%. She also discovered four main factors for these results.

First, nonviolent campaigns typically attract more participants, including women, elderly folks, and others who do not want to take the risks or the moral burdens of running around with guns but will engage in boycotts, strikes, rallies and other types of nonviolent protests. Second, when governments suppress a people power movement it backfires because if unarmed civilians are attacked, other citizens will mobilize and government will lose support from more sectors. Third, a government overthrown non-violently is likely to be democratic and less likely to cause a bloody revolution. Fourth, government forces might not fire on unarmed crowd which might include mothers, children, friends and neighbors. 

My conclusion is that we have not seen the end of nonviolent movements; and, that a movement based on people power is still the most successful method for removing a dictatorial government. 

Creative writing classes 

Young Writers’ Hangout on Nov. 9 and 23 (1:30 pm-3 pm; stand-alone sessions) at Fully Booked BGC. Adult class on fiction writing with Jose Y. Dalisay Jr. on Nov. 16, 1:30-4:30 pm. For details and registration, email [email protected].

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Email: [email protected]