Britain’s bitter political harvest

September in the United Kingdom is when people go back to school and work after the summer holidays. Leaves turn from the vibrant greens of summer to warm yellows, oranges, reds and browns, the sun lowers in the sky, there’s a new chill in the wind, apples and nuts ripen in the trees and animals and humans alike gather to store food before the grim winter weather sets in. “To Autumn,” a famous poem by English romantic poet John Keats describes a “season of mists and mellow fruitfulness.” These signs of the familiar rhythm of the earth’s slow transit around the sun is also a reminder of the approaching bleak midwinter, unknown to our tropical climes in the Philippines.

This time between light and dark, heat and cold is a time of heightened activity by necessity. Ancient wisdom from pre-industrial times calls for management and conservation of resources: husbandry, thrift, watchfulness and care are qualities and practices that will make the difference between life and death when the earth is frozen bare and little grows.

This year in the UK autumn has not brought with it mellowness nor economy. Instead there is a political storm raging and profligate public spending to prepare, not for the seasonal shortages around winter, but for the politician-made shortages to come with Brexit, with or without a withdrawal agreement or “deal.”

In total the government has allocated 6.3 billion pounds to prepare for a No-Deal-Brexit, an extra 2.1 billion having been recently allocated to stockpile medicines, hire and train more border officials and staff to deal with an expected increase in passport applications, fund a huge advertising campaign and improve infrastructure around ports. Already local government officials at port cities say they are expecting “chaos.”

Opposition politicians say the spending is an “appalling waste of taxpayers’ cash”, joining the chorus of critics saying the money would be better spent on healthcare and education. It’s not as if there’s even enough time to spend it, with Brexit due so soon. A parliamentary committee has been told the UK was “now past the point of no return” for effective spending to mitigate the effects of No-Deal – a committee member said it’s just not feasible to spend that amount of money in time.

In the private sector, British companies are expected to continue to divert billions of pounds from investment to prepare for a No-Deal-Brexit until it is taken off the table.

It’s not just the UK that’s having to dedicate funds to prepare and compensate people for lost income from Brexit. The European Union, in response to Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s repeated promise to leave the EU with or without a deal that would soften the impact on people and businesses, has released funds that are usually reserved for natural disasters in case of No-Deal. The EU says it will also demand the UK pay a Brexit divorce bill (agreed with Johnson’s predecessor Theresa May) of at least 33 billion pounds which are the UK’s contribution to EU annual budgets up to 2020, payment of outstanding commitments, and financing liabilities up to the end of 2020. Johnson has already said the UK will not honor the bill if there’s no withdrawal agreement.

No-Deal-Brexit has always been avoidable, but the Johnson administration appears to be courting such an outcome in a reckless display of power against its opponents, and even more outrageously claiming it to be for the benefit of the country. PM Johnson has said “intense negotiations” are underway with the EU to try to reach a new deal before Oct. 31st when Brexit is due, but that was flatly and bruisingly denied as “bullsh**” by an EU negotiator who concluded Johnson doesn’t really want a deal: “What he is interested in is giving the illusion that he negotiates in good faith with bad people.”

This official fury is matched by public hilarity. Everyone in Europe is having a laugh at the political contortions and arcane squabbling in London, mocking the cries for “Order!” in Parliament which have gone viral on social media and are frankly sick and tired of the shenanigans.

The past week has been a train wreck for the ruling party. The Prime Minister’s own brother has resigned from government citing the clash between family loyalty and national interest that he couldn’t resolve. Earlier in the week the ruling party lost its majority in humiliating fashion with a mass rebellion in its own ranks, the leading clique then spitefully kicked out some of its most experienced centrist lawmakers, including Winston Churchill’s grandson, who held back tears as he announced his decision to quit and vote against his party. At another point, the Leader of the House decided to lie back with his feet up during a debate in a show of disdain for the proceedings that provoked more arguments and viral memes on social media.

The government may even find itself in the ludicrous position of having to call a vote of no confidence in itself in order to force a snap election, farcically the opposition may then vote confidence to keep PM Johnson trapped in office without power past Oct. 31st!

What’s playing out as a comedy in Europe feels much more like a tragedy in the UK, with the blustering and yet ruthless dogmatism of the ruling party resonating with the dangerous overconfidence and foolish pride that precede death, pain and suffering.

A doctor who advised the government on the possible consequences of No-Deal Brexit revealed “They’re stockpiling body bags for the risk of an increased mortality rate in a no-deal Brexit.”

The pound plummeted to its lowest in years and economists are warning that Brexit may set off a global recession .

This is no mellow season in nature, no deliberate pause for necessary economy but a frenzy of political conflict and extravagance that could turn very bad.

Autumn’s harvest 2019 is ever more likely to lead to a winter of discontent.