Free-for-all

As of Wednesday night, the murmur in the grapevine was that Rep. Alan Peter Cayetano was it – meaning the next speaker of the House of Representatives.

Cayetano (and an independent source) told me that his term-sharing “15-21” scheme – 15 months for him in the first term and 21 for the second – had already been approved, by whom he did not say.

The Taguig-Pateros congressman seemed so certain about a done deal. So I asked the person I presumed would serve the second phase if he had indeed agreed to the term sharing under the so-called Magellan formula (for 1521, the year Portuguese explorer Ferdinand Magellan arrived in the Philippines).

Leyte Rep. Martin Romualdez said no one had told him of any such agreement, and he would never agree to term sharing.

So another source is probably right: the one who will get the 21 months is not Romualdez but Marinduque Rep. Lord Allan Velasco, who is backed by Duterte’s party, the ruling Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Laban.

But anything can still happen until July 22, when the 18th Congress holds its opening session and lawmakers pick the House speaker and Senate president.

Cayetano was Duterte’s runningmate and is a Nacionalista, party of the Villars, one of the few staunch supporters of Duterte when he sought the presidency in 2016.

Romualdez belongs to the Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrats. Aurelio Gonzales Jr., PDP-Laban executive vice president who withdrew his bid for speaker, said Duterte could not possibly turn his back on his own party and pick Romualdez. But the Leyte congressman is backed by former speaker Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, and is a member of the Marcos-Romualdez clan, which enjoys a special place in the heart of Rodrigo Duterte.

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Whoever becomes speaker of the House of Representatives, what difference would it make for us lesser mortals?

Gonzales couldn’t say for sure. On our Cignal TV / One News show “The Chiefs,” we asked Gonzales how Velasco might be different from the other contenders for the post.

Apart from party affiliation, why would the PDP-Laban contender be a better speaker? Gonzales assured us that Velasco could shepherd the House into passing on time – meaning within the year – the national budget. Could Romualdez do the same? Gonzales said he didn’t know the Leyte congressman well enough to make an assessment.

The three-month delay in the approval of this year’s General Appropriations Act, under the watch of Arroyo whose presidency was also marked by perpetual delays in the GAA approval, has been blamed for slower-than-expected economic growth. It might have doomed GMA’s alleged aspirations to replace Sonny Dominguez as finance chief.

A few days can be a long time in Philippine politics. Last Tuesday, President Duterte’s eldest son Paolo expressed willingness to become a compromise choice. The next day, the party formed by the President’s daughter Sara Duterte-Carpio, Hugpong ng Pagbabago, announced it was offering a native son of Davao City, Isidro Ungab for the top House post.

Both Cayetano and Romualdez dismissed Ungab as a threat to their aspirations.

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It was simpler in the 17th Congress, when by most accounts, Mayor Sara stepped in, kicked out Pantaleon Alvarez and installed GMA as speaker. President Duterte looked genuinely surprised and miffed – if not by the fate that befell his supporter Alvarez, then by the timing of the ouster, which stole the thunder from his third State of the Nation Address.

This time, with all the contenders considered friends of the President’s family, the Dutertes may truly want to stay out of what is becoming a free-for-all.

Picking one over the other contenders could create enemies. And a president needs all the friends he can get in his final three years in office, when politicians, positioning themselves for the leadership change in 2022, are less inclined to jump off a bridge if Malacañang says so.

Pantaleon Alvarez has already shown that he might be down, but cannot be counted out. In this year’s elections, he and his allies trounced their opponents identified with Mayor Sara’s camp in their home turf Davao, including his nemesis, Antonio “Tonyboy” Floirendo Jr.

When we interviewed Gonzales last week, he was still hoping that either the Preisdent or Mayor Sara would step in and settle the issue. Now, with so many contenders, it looks like congressmen might just have to settle this issue by themselves.

Considering that the legislature is supposed to be an independent and co-equal branch of government, shouldn’t the free-for-all be a positive development for the chamber?

Gonzales, with a look that seemed to marvel at his interviewers’ naivete, patiently explained to us that the House super majority intends to carry out the legislative agenda of President Duterte, so he might as well pick the best person to lead the chamber in carrying out its mission.

Party-list Reps. Lito Atienza of Buhay and Carlos Zarate of Bayan Muna, a long-shot contender for speaker, said Malacañang’s “anointment” of the speaker weakens the legislature and undermines democracy.

Yet lawmakers go along. Atienza and Zarate, who faced The Chiefs in a separate episode yesterday, admitted that congressmen align themselves with the ruling coalition because the reality in our weak democracy is that the executive holds the purse strings – and lawmakers need funds for their constituencies and pet projects.

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So whoever emerges as speaker, what difference will it make to the people? It seems their contest has boiled down to whoever can scrape and bow better before Malacañang.

There are still a lot of proposed measures on the plate of the 18th Congress. Economic managers are hoping for the passage, among others, of additional tax reform measures, and further opening up of the economy to foreign investment.

Atienza and Zarate told us that all the major contenders for speaker are expected to revive the initiative to change the Constitution, if only to introduce economic amendments.

The contentious bills are being refiled, including the reimposition of the death penalty as well as approval of divorce, medical marijuana and a lower age of criminal responsibility.

All this, while politicians prepare for the elections in 2022. In less than two years, legislative work will be affected by realignments and positioning for the presidential race.

With several serious aspirants for the speaker’s post, those who fail in their bid will likely smile for the cameras and show that they are gracious losers.

But the resentment is bound to simmer underneath. When it bubbles up, it can fracture the ranks of the super majority. That can be bad news for a president in the last half of his term.