Rated 9

On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being the best, President Duterte scores a 9 in governance… but this being the assessment of Malacañang, I’m surprised that the rating wasn’t a 10. His rah-rah choir would give him an 11.

Duterte is entering the second half of his term with his human rights record still looming large over his administration, now combined with what his critics see as his scraping and bowing before the new Philippine overlords, the Chinese.

It’s doubtful that people who voted for Duterte on his promise of killing drug personalities have changed their minds about that support; they were aware of his record of lethal law enforcement long before he was persuaded to run for president.

While the brutal war on drugs will always be associated with Duterte’s first three years in office, many people will also remember the measures that were passed under his watch. Depending on where they’re coming from, people have described the measures either as populist or pro-poor.

For the poor, the measures include the universal health insurance, free tertiary level education, free irrigation and the institutionalization of the conditional cash transfer program.

Even the middle class will remember Duterte for the enactment of laws on expanded maternity leave, greater access to mental health care and HIV / AIDS support. Non-smokers are rejoicing over the nationwide ban on cigarette smoking in public places, although there are still enforcement loopholes that must be plugged. Yesterday the Department of Health included vaporizers and other e-cigarettes in the ban. JUUL, the bane of anti-tobacco advocates in the US, is now in the Philippines. Shaped like a USB cartridge, one JUUL pod is said to deliver nicotine equivalent to a pack of cigarettes.

Free wi-fi in public places is also noteworthy, except the service is spotty at best. And delivering on his promise of cutting red tape, Duterte has signed into law the Ease of Doing Business Act, which aims to fill the gaps in the Anti-Red Tape Act. I’m still waiting for feedback on the implementation of the new law, in which local government units play a critical role.

As for the tax reform law, the impact of any cut in income tax has been negated by inflation that started when the fuel excise tax was imposed, at around the same time that crude prices were surging in the world market and rice prices in the Philippines were soaring.

Farmers are also still waiting to benefit from the fund set up under the rice tariffication law, which is supposed to be used for boosting rice production. For now, they are mostly groaning from the plunge in palay prices because of “unli” rice importation.

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Also suffering from uncertainty are the fishermen in the country’s western seaboard. Their president has effectively handed over on a silver platter their fishing grounds to the Chinese. Their boat sank after being hit by a Chinese ship. Whether it was accidental or deliberate, it seems clear that the 22 fishermen were left floundering in the sea for four hours, until Vietnamese fishermen came along and, bless their souls, plucked the Filipinos out of the water.

Foreign Affairs Secretary Teddyboy Locsin reacted correctly, raising the case before the United Nations. But the foreign secretary is just the implementer of foreign policy. Its architect dismissed the sinking as “a little maritime incident,” and dispatched his secretary of agriculture, whose department has jurisdiction over fisheries, to meet with the fishermen in Mindoro Occidental.

When Manny Piñol was done with the fishermen, they had developed amnesia and were flashing the trademark Duterte fist at the TV cameras – rather unenthusiastically despite the cash gift and new boats from the government handed out by Piñol.

Duterte has since disparaged his country’s own Constitution as toilet paper, and disclosed that he has a verbal agreement with his friend Xi Jinping to open the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ) to Chinese fishermen. Do verbal agreements hold water in international affairs? And if it involves foreign exploitation of Philippine natural resources, should it require the concurrence of Congress?

One way to measure bilateral friendship is reciprocity. How would Beijing react if Filipinos fished in its EEZ near Hainan? The Filipino boat might not just be rammed by Chinese maritime militia but even be torpedoed out of the water.

Duterte has not even met with any of the 22 fishermen to commiserate with them. Is he mad at them for causing him trouble? Is he worried about offending Xi?

He keeps harping on war. China and Vietnam have a longer-running maritime dispute, and there have been shooting incidents between the two countries, but not war. Surely Beijing is also considering the possibility that an armed attack on the Philippines might trigger its Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States, ambiguous as the MDT might be compared with the wording of a similar treaty between the US and Japan.

Why will China attack Duterte’s Philippines? The Duterte presidency is the best thing that has happened to China in enforcing its expansive maritime claim. Duterte is telling the truth: China is his friend. The bond is so tight that it has raised questions on whether the friendship is personal and reinforced at the expense of Philippine national interest.

Unless his policy of acquiescence toward China begins showing results in disputed areas, this question will cast a shadow over Duterte’s solid accomplishments, and could persist in the second half of his term.

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With his high ratings in mind, Duterte will likely shrug off the criticism. His super majority will protect him from impeachment for the rest of his term. He has always pushed for the welfare of members of the Armed Forces of the Philippines and has even been accused of militarizing the civilian government.

Still, he will have to deal with restiveness in the ranks due to his policy toward China. There is no AFP plot to oust him, but there is discontent. Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana has long been in the crosshairs of pro-Beijing quarters.

Being a believer in surveys, Duterte might take note of the abysmal trust rating of China among Pinoys compared to other countries. This is not being helped by public perceptions of a Chinese invasion of sorts, with foreigners seen to be taking away jobs from the Pinoy working class.

There’s still a lot on Duterte’s plate in the next three years. He has racked up a list of achievements in the first half, with the poor and the middle class among the biggest beneficiaries. But there are several issues getting in the way of his accomplishments.