Political alliances in flux

We are only on the first week of campaign so the electoral battle lines are still being drawn and redrawn. At this point, it is best to analyze the coming fight based on an analysis of the different political groupings and personalities. It is already clear that there are some unanswered questions whose answers  will determine  the coming senatorial elections.

The Opposition, with the Liberal Party as its core, has been the first “off the gates.” For the purpose of easily remembering its eight-person ticket, it has already developed an acronym. MATH GRAD stands for Macalintal, Alejano, Tanada, Hilbay, Gutoc, Roxas, Aquino, Diokno. On social media, I already see a big push for the group instead of individual candidates. 

This is a strategic masterpiece because it is obvious that some of the Opposition candidates lack national name awareness. This weakness has been partly addressed because they have at least two names with national stature – Roxas and Aquino plus a couple of candidates with well known family names – Tañada and Diokno. The others will have to rely first on group identity and focusing on developing a national name recall during the next few months.

 During mid-term elections, there is usually only two senatorial tickets with one representing the administration and the other representing the opposition. At this point, I still expect that this is what will eventually emerge. However, there does seem to be a possibility that this year could see a different political alignment. There will definitely be one opposition ticket. However, as of the time I am writing this column, there are still two administration political groups – PDP-Laban headed by Koko Pimentel and Hugpong sa Pagbabago headed by Sara Duterte which  are supposed to be allies and both are supporting President Duterte. 

Hugpong  recently announced that it is endorsing 14 senatorial candidates. I will not name the 14 because I am not sure that this is the final list. There cannot be 14 candidates for only 12 senate seats. If they announce that they will recommend 14 and leave it to the different groups in the alliance to choose their 12 choices, this is an invitation to intrigues and political junking. For example, which two candidates will be junked in Ilocos Norte? I am fairly sure I know at least one candidate who will be junked in that province, but I will not print the name here to avoid being accused of political intrigue.

PDP-Laban has announced six senatorial candidates – Pimentel, Roque, Go, de la Rosa, Tolentino, Mangudadatu, who are on the recommended  list of Hugpong. Pimentel has said that PDP will invite six guest candidates. The question now is, will the six guest candidates come from the Hugpong list?

There are now two intriguing questions in the choice of guest candidates. If they come from the Hugpong list, which two recommendees will PDP NOT invite as guest candidates. While we all have to wait – as of this writing – I do want to make one observation. I never ever thought that I would ever see a Pimentel and a Marcos sharing the same stage and endorsing each other. I remember a previous election when Koko Pimentel refused to follow his party’s decision to share the same political  stage with Zubiri on the basis of principles. So my first question is, will we see the same adherence to principles in the choosing of PDP Laban’s guest candidates?

The second question is what happens if PDP-Laban chooses guest candidates that are not in Hugpong’s list? There are a number of names that are strong contenders that are not in Sara Duterte’s recommended list like Grace Poe, Nancy Binay and Sergio Osmeña III. If I were in the opposition, I would hope that these three names will not become PDP guest candidates. However, if they are not chosen, this would pose a serious quandary to the groups supporting them.

Grace Poe has been topping the senatorial surveys so far. She was the presidential candidate of the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) which also includes Tito Sotto and JV Ejercito. Will she decide to run as an independent? If she is drafted as a guest candidate of the Opposition, will she accept? If she accepts, will the NPC still support her even if they have two candidates running in two different tickets? Finally, will the NPC then come out with its recommended list with candidates from different political groups? 

Right now, the Binays are focused on the ongoing sibling rivalry for the Makati mayoralty seat. This has been publicly exacerbated by the differing endorsements of Jojo Binay for Abigail and Nancy Binay for Jun-jun. However, sooner or later, the Binay clan will have to see that their biggest challenge is the reelection of Nancy Binay. Although she ranks high in the survey, she will have organizational problems. She is not in the administration ticket. Jojo Binay is running for Congress and will also be spending time refereeing the mayoralty race in Makati. Without the active support of her father and siblings and without any national network, Nancy Binay might end up as one of the upsets of the election. 

The eight-person senatorial ticket of the Opposition leaves room for four guest candidates. My final question for this column is which will be the four? I just read that Sergio Osmeña III. has declared support for Duterte. If that is true, then that takes him out as a possibility. For the Opposition, the ideal choices would be Grace Poe and Nancy Binay. However, will NPC allow Poe to join the opposition? For Nancy Binay, will her chances be better running as an independent or as an Opposition ally?

The political environment is still in a state of flux but it should all firm up in the coming weeks.

Creative writing classes for kids, teens and adults

Young Writers’ Hangout on Nov. 10 and 24 (1:30 pm-3 pm; stand-alone sessions), writing in the workplace with Ginny Santiago on Nov. 17 (1:30-4:30 pm) at Fully Booked BGC. For details and registration, email [email protected].

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Email: [email protected].