Rains, floods and the traffic mess

Déjà vu! The southwest monsoon enhanced by Tropical Storm Karding has triggered memories of Typhoon Ondoy as floods and rising waters hit many barangays in Metro Manila. More than 500 households were evacuated to safer grounds.

Last Saturday’s traffic was a standstill with many commuters stranded. Homes experienced rising waters reaching the rooftops. Automobiles were submerged in flooded areas. Manila had a sea of garbage running through Roxas Boulevard (looking like an avalanche of trash). Sta. Mesa, Marcos Highway and parts of EDSA were parking lots.

It looks like the rains are here to stay. We must deal with this upfront and personal. But up to this day, we seem to be unprepared whenever the rains come. Today most cancellation of work/ school is not due to the rainfall but to the flooding. There are notorious cities in the metro that suspend classes due to traffic caused by flooding. The sad state of the city affects many students and as a result, learning is not enough. The city in effect produces mediocre graduates who become part of the workforce. Businesses on the other hand, suffer and the economy slows down.

There are many causes of flooding. The number one reason is garbage – human made garbage and industrial garbage. Clogged waters due to garbage or construction debris, poor civil engineering works when constructing buildings and roadways (causes poor drainage systems), wrong zoning/ mapping/ city planning (i.e. low-leveled water areas or swamps are converted to industrial areas), illegal logging, deforestation (causes landslides and mudslides; unfortunately allowed by mayors, DENR, etc.) are also major causes of flooding.

Let’s zero in to EDSA. Last year and even when Typhoon Ondoy came, there was no flooding problem in the area fronting the AFP headquarters and EDSA highway. But after the Department of Public Works and Highways (or DPWH) expanded that portion of EDSA, it became a flooded zone (which caused the two major traffic jams in the past weeks when it rained). Talk about the quality of contractors they get. Calling DPWH Secretary Villar, what’s going on? Clearly, there is something mega wrong. The leading team of the country in constructing major roadways and highways has failed us. If Secretary Villar doesn’t see the clear and present danger looming in front of our very eyes, then we are doomed. He needs to do an intense drive to clean up the department’s systems.

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Now, let’s take the problems we have in class suspensions due to the weather. When it begins to rain, people begin to ask their offices or schools if there is work or not. Why can’t they just believe PAGASA or the Mayor’s Office? Why do they need to double check? Aren’t government announcements enough? People don’t seem to trust these entities anymore. Why is this happening? Time and energy is wasted with such behavior. People have lost trust in government. This administration must work on attaining efficiency. We are paying so much taxes and yet we get mediocre services in return. Not to mention the deception, fraud, trickery, extortion and slyness many officials do to us.

Now, there is no standard protocol yet in the cancellation of work/ classes. The most recent is that many mayors who always get the brunt out of their announcements have turned over the work of suspensions to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (or the NDRRMC) lest they lose votes for the coming elections. The rule is that the NDRRMC advises the mayors of the weather conditions and then the mayors make the announcements, but of course, now things are beginning to change. Mayors don’t want to get the flak. Susmariosep!

A good and efficient application to check the weather is Weather Manila (weather-manila.com). It is a useful source of weather information, particularly rainfall that can cause flooding and other hazards like landslides. Weather Manila was developed by Gerry Bagtasa, Ph. D. in the field of atmospheric physics/atmospheric remote sensing in Chiba University, Japan and a holder of a master’s degree in Physics from De La Salle University Manila. He is presently working at the Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology of the University of the Philippines.

Weather Manila aims to deliver up-to-date, accurate and detailed information of cities in the country as a supplement to PAGASA weather forecast. Compared to PAGASA’S Color-coded Rainfall Warning System, Weather Manila forecasts are more specified per city, especially in Metro Manila. This means that the local officials can get a more accurate scope of data at an appropriate scale, something that can help them in making decisions with regard to cancellation of classes/work.

Weather Manila uses the software called numerical weather prediction model to simulate the future state of the atmosphere or weather for up to a week. The model can provide the most accurate forecasts possible. It also uses higher resolution spacing to pinpoint locations for forecasting to avoid errors over large areas.

The website updates its forecasts every 6 hours at around 9 am, 3 pm, 9 pm and 3 am (Philippine Standard Time). What is the most accurate prediction? Weather Manila says that the closer predictions are the most accurate. It is therefore, recommended that decision-makers check the website at 3 pm (if within office hours) or 9 pm for the following day’s forecast as the basis for class cancellation.

In classifying rainfall, Weather Manila has the following: Moderate: 2.5 mm to 7.5 mm per hour of rainfall; Heavy: 7.5 mm to 15 mm per hour of rainfall; Intense: 15 mm to 30 mm per hour of rainfall; Torrential: 30mm per hour of rainfall or higher.

The public is asked to prepare for possible evacuation at the Green Warning which is equivalent to Intense Rainfall. For purposes of cancellation and the present classifications, the Heavy rainfall is equivalent to PAGASA’s Yellow Warning which can cause flooding. This can be the basis for the cancellation of classes. This is especially relevant for streets which intersect with creeks. These are the most common areas in Metro Manila that experience flooding (Lagmay et. al., 2017).

Both national and local government must get their act together. Show us some teeth. We’re tired of mediocrity in government service! This is not the Philippines we deserve!