Rainy Daze

My pet peeve in the past 15 years has been inaccurate weather forecasting that has led to many unnecessary cancellations of classes not to mention work in both public and private sectors.

If we do not find the right formula on how to make such decisions, then, we’re doomed! Students will always miss the bus. They will end up inferior to their international counterparts (no school, no learning, no progress). The economy will collapse (no work, no pay, no production, no income).

The ‘mismanagement’ and the lack of knowledge on weather forecasting of the Local Government Units around the country has also added to the regression. It has conditioned Filipinos to be tamad (lazier than ever).

Who doesn’t love the rain? We’re so used to the tropical weather; the rains will always be part and parcel of our lives in this archipelago. In fact, our culture and traditions are built around it. We love eating tuyo and sinangag with kamatis and salted eggs for breakfast or our lola’s recipe of champorado with dried fish when it is raining. The children will always want to play in the rain. They will even swim in pools of flooded water not conscious of the risk of getting sick or the threat of leptospirosis.

When the rains fall, even if not heavy enough, everyone praises the high heavens for the coolness it brings. But nowadays, people associate the rains with “no school days” or no work days.” And this is where the problem lies. Our countrymen have already been trapped in the vicious cycle of laziness and despair. And in order to turn the situation into a positive vibe, they turn to eating, sleeping, watching movies and going to the mall when in fact they were sent home to be safe and dry. Instead of working toward progress by establishing a hazards control hierarchy, administrative controls that will change the way people work, the inefficient pronouncements made by the LGUs (including the weak forecasts of Pagasa), continues to make this nation what it is today. Damaged! Fractured! Shattered!

I have been studying the trend of forecasts made by Pagasa as well as the suspensions made by LGUs in different parts of the country. They seem to be so erratic. Many LGUs become part of a ‘bandwagon’ effect. When one mayor makes the first announcement, the rest will follow suit without following a standard algorithm. By the way did you know that Muntinlupa, Paranaque and Las Pinas share one Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) office? This explains the synchronized cancellation of classes in these areas. Our gaya-gaya mentality prevails over the pursuit of efficiency and the right scientific understanding.

One must realize that rainfall is not the same in every city (the weather patterns even in barangays within a city can be different) and province. Of course, flooding is another story. You don’t predict that, you know it is bound to happen in an area depending on different factors as visualized in NOAH: (1) amount of rainfall; (2) river flooding; (3) urban flooding caused by too much garbage in the rivers, canals and streets; (4) if the city mayor or barangay captains ignore the potholes and leave them unfixed; (5) inadequate roadways and waterways, etc., etc.

After all these years, we are still mystified by the monsoon rains and tropical storm coming our way. When new officials enter public service, they create their own protocols about rainy days and suspensions. What happens now to the continuity of DRR knowledge/training? They also have different ways and systems to check the weather not merely relying on Pagasa because many times there is no hope (talagang walang Pagasa) on their forecasts.

It’s about time Pagasa advances their technology and improve their system. They have a tendency to cover only the macro (or regional weather systems) and ignore the micro forecasts (per city or province) to say the least. So, the public tends to rely on independent, non-government weather stations for weather updates in their locality. Sanamagan! As a matter of fact, I know that there are cities in Metro Manila who have acquired their own weather forecast equipment just to make sure they make the right decisions when necessary.

A week ago, we were showed a glimpse of the fate of our country on weather forecasting and classes/ work suspensions. When Typhoon Henry entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on a weekend, Pagasa announced the weather forecast for Monday but to our dismay many city mayors did not seem to have listened carefully. They ended up cancelling classes when in fact, they shouldn’t have. On Tuesday, Pagasa said expect cloudy skies, scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The city officials obviously heeding Pagasa’s earlier call on being more discerning did not announce any suspensions in the early hours of the morning. But then Pagasa seem to fall short of its forecast as heavy rains fell more than usual (making the Marikina River’s alarm ring twice). Clearly everyone was better off going home by mid-morning. The mayors took it upon their hands to suspend classes at the last minute.

That same Tuesday night, Pagasa continued to warn the public about monsoon rains enhanced by two moderate weather systems and that rains would continue to prevail until Thursday. The problem here was, they did it on a macro scale. They should have been more specific about the areas of apparent rainfall. Classes and even work were suspended but the rains actually stopped over the Metro on Wednesday. So, Pagasa either gave us the wrong impression or they were not that detailed to begin with. Notice how they present the news on the weather – if you closely read and try to understand it is not very clear because they cover a bigger area. And since we are an archipelago our weather patterns in each island let alone within a city may always vary.

By the way, aside from Pagasa, there are many weather channels. While Pagasa predicted a heavy rainfall the following day Wednesday that caused mayors to suspend work and classes (due to panic), these independent weather channels predicted otherwise. Their data showed less rainfall.

The same thing happened again the night before President Duterte’s SONA. Some mayors I believe were too early in their decision to suspend classes for the following day based on Pagasa’s weather bulletin that evening. Other mayors followed suit early morning the next day. In short, classes were suspended again! But the skies brightened and the rain stopped. Another day wasted!

If we are given a clearer picture of our weather systems in the country, then everyone will stop panicking. There will be no confusion in making announcements of suspension of classes. We have to be more scientific even if the weather patterns may change in a span of two to four hours.

In summation, allow me to point out once again the main gaps in class cancellation that needs to be addressed: macro scale forecasting, continuity in DRR knowledge and decision-making source of LGUs.

So, where do we go from here? Will the rainy ‘daze’ be here to stay? Abangan!