Finally, Cha-cha?

There’s a book nearly 400 pages thick sitting on a shelf in my office. It’s the “Report of the Preparatory Commission on Constitutional Reforms,” including transcripts of deliberations drafted by the panel, with a 42-page summary. The commission, chaired by retired chief justice Andres Narvasa, submitted the report to then president Joseph Estrada on Dec. 20, 1999.

Only the commission members probably remember the report now.

The other day I saw a much thinner pile of an entirely new set of proposed changes to the Constitution. It was a copy of the draft that would be submitted to President Duterte, according to professor Jesus Teehankee, who chaired the subcommittee on political reforms in the consultative committee on Charter change.

Teehankee hesitates to call it the “final” draft since it will still be reviewed by the President before it is forwarded to Congress.

The super majority in the House of Representatives, usually an eager rubberstamp of Malacañang, this time may be less enthusiastic because of the anti-dynasty provision that limits the candidacies of family members up to the second degree of kinship by blood or marriage.

Congress will tackle the proposed Charter in a constituent assembly, and there lies another hurdle. The House – this time going along with Malacañang – is expected to insist on joint voting by the two chambers. This is to ensure that the senators, who are naturally cool to a proposal that will abolish their chamber, cannot put a barrier on the railroad. The super majority can muster a three-fourths vote faster than you can say pork barrel. This is enough to drown out the voice of the entire Senate. But we can expect the senators not to take this sitting down.

So at this point, there’s a good chance that the draft brought by Teehankee with him the other day to “The Chiefs,” on Cignal TV’s One News channel, would one day join the report of the 1999 preparatory commission on my bookshelf, there to gather dust in the latest unsuccessful effort to change the Constitution.

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Administration officials attribute the high public resistance to Cha-cha and federalism to a lack of understanding of the new form of government and the Constitution itself.

But this is underestimating the public. There are certain basic issues fueling resistance to Cha-cha, which ordinary people understand well enough. One is how much change is possible when the same politicians will be in charge under a federal system. This leads to the other concern, which is that autonomy, including greater control over public funds, will be the best thing to happen to political warlords.

A third concern is that Cha-cha will allow President Duterte to stay longer in power. Teehankee confirmed that this is possible, because the draft Cha-cha allows Duterte to seek a four-year term with one reelection under a federal system.

Of course Duterte will have to win reelection first. At the end of his six years, people may be tired of all the killing and public cussing and may be ready for change. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, Joseph Estrada and perhaps even Noynoy Aquino might run again. And Duterte has always said he does not intend to stay longer in power. There’s a difference, however, between term extension and reelection. If he decides to seek reelection, the so-called equity of the incumbent goes a long way in elections in this country.

By 2022, will the country want another four – or possibly eight more years – of Rodrigo Duterte?

There have been contradictory statements from the members of the consultative committee. Former chief justice Reynato Puno, the committee’s chair, said earlier this year that under the draft Charter, term limits of the incumbents would be retained and Duterte could not run for president after 2022. Teehankee, however, noted that the draft for submission to the President this Monday says otherwise.

Earlier this year, the House committee on constitutional amendments also said the planned changes would allow Duterte to run again.

The possibility of a president staying longer in power – even if he has to win election first – doomed the Cha-cha efforts during the presidencies of Fidel Ramos and Arroyo. I don’t sense any change in public sentiment at this point.

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It’s too bad because after 31 years, this Constitution can use at least economic amendments. Economic restrictions in our Constitution have made the country one of the least competitive in the region.

And I like the ban on dynasties, which Teehankee said is non-negotiable in the approval of the draft Charter. Lawmakers, for obvious reasons, have refused to pass an enabling law for the anti-dynasty provision in the Constitution.

A member of one of the biggest dynasties – Sen. Joseph Victor Ejercito – indicated to “The Chiefs” that if a law were passed, their family would comply.

Although he did not lay out specific political plans, in the absence of a law, we might yet see JV Ejercito taking over his mother Guia Gomez as mayor of their turf, San Juan, in 2019 with dad Joseph Estrada seeking reelection as Manila mayor, and half-brother Jinggoy Estrada seeking a Senate seat.

Ejercito stressed that he was an author of the first and only anti-dynasty law ever enacted, covering the Sangguniang Kabataan or youth council. And he indicated he wasn’t too concerned about the anti-dynasty provision in the draft Charter.

But many other lawmakers are, and they will be tackling the draft in a constituent assembly. It will be interesting to see if the dynasty ban is truly non-negotiable.

The party-list system will be retained under the new Charter, unfortunately for taxpayers, who will also be burdened with even more lawmakers – over 400 – in a federal legislature.

There will be four Supreme Courts, with the current one losing jurisdiction over constitutional matters. I don’t know how the new setup will improve the rotten judicial system or reduce what Noynoy Aquino used to lambast as “judicial overreach.” The Supreme Court certainly overreached in the quo warranto petition against the chief justice. Will Cha-cha reword a new Constitution to ensure that there will be no repeat and protect impeachable officials from instant ouster?

We’ll have to wait for the federal Charter that will be presented by Congress to the public in a referendum.

Just seeing the same old faces campaigning for the federal Constitution, however, should make people wonder how much real change is possible.