Kim Jong Un: Crazy or rational dictator?

North Korea’s offer for a summit meeting between Kim Jong Un and Trump was totally unexpected. This announcement came after North Korea’s well publicized participation in the Winter Olympics in South Korea and a top level meeting between Kim Jong Un and South Korean officials. It has been reported that North Korea is even willing to include denuclearization in the proposed summit agenda.

It was a surprise that Trump agreed to the summit meeting without even any lengthy discussion or analysis with his top officials. It is well publicized that Trump runs his presidency like a reality television show. He is more interested in the visual impact than with policy issues. If it will merit worldwide attention on him, he will go for it – especially if there is an element of suspense. Notice how he keeps his audience guessing by adding at the end of an announcement: “We will see what happens.” This is like telling his audience – wait for the next episode.

For me, the more interesting question is what geopolitical analyst Bao Pu asked more than a year ago: “Is Kim Jong Un a crazy fat kid or a rational despot?” His conclusion was that all historical evidence suggests that Kim Jong Un is a “...highly rational political player, the opposite of the West’s widely held belief that he is unpredictable. And such a player must be taken seriously.” 

The first thing to remember is that the Kim family has ruled North Korea for three generations. Obviously, such a feat requires a high degree of political gamesmanship and the ability to play the power game in a life and death struggle. Even the assassination of Kim Jong Un’s half brother is not a sign that Kim has grown desperate. Bao Pu believes it actually signals Kim’s strength and his consolidation of power. Assassination has always been a weapon of choice of despots and dictators since ancient times. Machiavelli once wrote: “The new ruler must determine all the injuries that he will need to inflict. He must inflict them once and for all.” This could easily be a description of Kim Jong Un’s actions.

Despotism leads to repression and eventually results in dissent and political instability. But even with severe repression, it is difficult to predict how long a repressive regime can last. Marcos was able to keep his dictatorship in power for around 14 years. The regime of Mao Zedong was stable even when it starved over 30 million people to death in a span of just two years.

For those who are wondering why North Korea offered a summit meeting, the following Stratfor analysis is enlightening:

“ Facing the potential threat of a US military strike and under heavy sanctions pressure, North Korea has been forging a diplomatic path with South Korea since the beginning of 2018. This is a tried and true North Korean tactic, reaching out  at the height of crisis in hopes of breaking out of spiralling tensions with the United States. Ad this is not the first time the country has done so – there are numerous examples over the past several decades. In this instance, Pyongyang has skilfully played on South Korea’s fear of a military strike and hopes of reunification. It has also shored up Russian and Chinese arguments over the past year that the United States is fueling a toxic dynamic of escalations that Washington could itself end. The North’s mention of denuclearization fulfils a long-standing demand by Washington that any talks result in a non-proliferation agreement.”

North Korea has said to be willing to discuss denuclearization if the United States agrees to discuss guaranteeing the security of the Kim Jong  Un regime. This means a condition would be the American forces leaving the Korean peninsula. This demand for American withdrawal is a position that China and Russia would actively support. However, a withdrawal would alarm American key allies like Japan. 

The United States is actually in a quandary. If it engages in a discussion that would include American withdrawal, this would alarm Japan and Western allies. If the United States refuses to engage in that discussion,  even South Korea will be disappointed and a possible shift in international cooperation for the sanctions against North Korea. Already, the initial announcement of Trump’s acceptance  of a summit meeting is being modified by subsequent announcements that there must be “concrete steps” that North Korea must take before there is a summit meeting.

It seems that Kim Jong Un is not some irrational ruler. He seems to be adept at reading the international situation and right now he is making the right moves to exploit the potential agreements among those countries that have imposed sanctions on his country. For better or for worst, Kim Jong Un has managed to gain more time and space for his regime. 

If one assumes that Kim Jong Un is a rational despot, it can be assumed that North Korea will not fire the first which will lead to retaliation and total destruction of their country. Continuous delay and brinkmanship would be Kim’s best strategy. In the end, the world might have to live with a nuclear armed North Korea just as it has learned to co-exist with so many other nuclear armed nations. 

Summer creative writing classes and workshop for kids and teens

Young Writers’ Hangout on March 17, April 7, 14, 21 and 28, May 12, 19 and 26 (1:30pm-3pm; independent sessions); Wonder of Words Workshop on May 7, 9, 11, 14, 16 & 18 (1:30-3:30 pm for 8-12 years old/ 4-6 pm for 13-17 years old) at Fully Booked BGC.  For details and registration contact 0945-2273216 or [email protected].

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