Brace for impact

I went around some parts of Metro Manila, the first day since the government eased the lockdown. I snaked through some hidden roads and nooks and crannies only Waze knows to get a glimpse of how Filipinos embraced the new normal.

There were people everywhere, gathered outside supermarkets and malls which have just reopened; cars filled EDSA like it's a grueling Monday rush hour; the number of motorcycles doubled, too, like ants that just came out of hiding.

In Mandaluyong and some parts of Makati, people loitered around their residential districts. In Quezon City, residents swarmed a mall that had just reopened.

In one community mall in Makati, there was a long queue outside but there was really no proper social distancing. The guards had to check the temperature of all those coming in as part of stricter health measures.

I also noticed many people wore masks but these were just hanging around their neck. This is understandable; wearing masks is uncomfortable.

But all of this is dangerous and scary and here’s what I can conclude after driving around the whole afternoon in some parts of Metro Manila – we should all brace for impact.

I am certain, just from what I saw from inside the safety of my vehicle, that with the reopening of malls and the general easing of the lockdown – without parallel efforts to test and isolate infected people – the situation in the Philippines will worsen.

There will be many more who will be infected by the coronavirus disease 2019 or COVID-19.

We shouldn't call this the second wave of infections because we haven't even flattened out the curve yet. Let’s not kid ourselves. The number of confirmed cases in the Philippines is now at 12,305 and 817 of them have died.

The numbers are stark and telling.

Safe malling

The government has allowed malls to reopen and mall operators have assured the public they would implement strict health measures.

But we all know this is easier said than done.

Filipinos are said to be among the most stubborn, undisciplined and complacent people in the world. We will comply initially, but along the way, we relax and just try to wing it, or, perhaps we’re simply used to being lulled into a false sense of security.

Just look at the lockdown. As the quarantine went on, one couldn't help but notice that there were less people manning the checkpoint or worse, some checkpoints have actually disappeared. 

The same will happen in malls. People will go back to their favorite shopping destinations and, as the crowd gets heavier, mall operators will have difficulty implementing the “strict” health protocols. I fervently hope it doesn’t happen, but with the long queues I saw last Saturday outside malls, I'm not so optimistic about safe malling.

Sure the guards will check everyone’s temperatures, but what if there are asymptomatic carriers? One super carrier going around a confined mall can infect the guard. The guard goes home to his family and infects his wife, children, neighbors and every Tom, Dick and Harry.

I know reopening the malls will have a positive impact on the economy. According to government data, household consumption currently makes up 71.5 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product and 30 percent of this total consumer-spending happens inside malls.

But we should brace for a resurgence or an exponential increase in the number of cases of COVID-19. Malls can be hotspots. Even if malls have opened, consumers with nothing important to do in these shopping places should just stay at home.

Infrastructure projects

The government can boost the economy through many other ways. 

It could have continued the Build Build Build program especially when there were no cars in EDSA. The construction workers could have been confined in the job sites as they usually are when there is a project. This would have been a controlled group.

The projects could have continued during the lockdown and suppliers and the downstream construction industry would have benefitted.

Flattening the curve

I wouldn’t advocate for a prolonged lockdown either, but our approach should be data-based.

Health experts have repeatedly underscored the importance of mass testing, noting that the numbers presented by health officials do not reflect the real situation because only select people are tested for COVID-19.

We should have had mass testing long before the lockdown. We should have tested local communities and isolated those confirmed to have the virus. We could have locked down these communities in a more systematic manner.

This is what Vietnam did, a country which used to lag behind us. Vietnam imposed travel bans early on, conducted tests in communities, closed the borders and quarantined affected areas.

We did some of these things, but many came too late. Now, we’ve reopened the economy and eased the lockdown without really getting a complete picture of where we are in the fight against COVID-19.

It’s scary and as the first day of quarantine easing has shown us, one thing is clear – we should all brace for impact.

Iris Gonzales’ email address is [email protected]. Follow her on Twitter @eyesgonzales. Column archives at eyesgonzales.com