We stay alive trying

MANILA, Philippines — We need to bring the economy back to life and we don’t need to die trying. Not when other countries have shown winning against the virus is possible with just partial quarantine. Not with the example of Japan, the oldest country in the world, who kept its aging population safe without a lockdown. Not with the example of Singapore that certifies certain public places clean and safe. Not with the example of Vietnam, with only 270 COVID-19 cases, and zero death, yet conducts COVID-19 testing on its population almost three times as much as we do.

We can stay alive trying as a country but before anything else, we have to get the brutal facts. This Sunday, I want to share these facts, culled and scraped by PwC Philippines’ Data Analytics team. Facts are not branded, not positional and not political. Here are some key ones:

The Philippines is only starting to “apparently” flatten the curve. The number of cases recorded everyday should be increasing at a slower rate until it reaches a peak or the same number of cases everyday. At that point, the curve is flattened. In the case of the Philippines, 60 days after the first case was confirmed, there are about 10,000 confirmed cases and new cases that number between 100 and 200 daily. The corroboration to this decreasing number of cases is that the doubling time in the country is now around seven days (thus past the benchmark of five days). So there indeed appears to be a slowdown in the number of confirmed cases.

Note, however, that the slowdown will be irrelevant if the available medical facilities and services in the country cannot accommodate an apparently flattened curve. The Department of Health (DOH) tracker says that only 40 percent of beds are occupied by COVID-19 patients, and yet news of hospitals reaching full bed capacity have been reported as early as March 24.

Moreover, before we count the apparent flattening of the curve as a win, we need to be aware that the Philippines conducts one of the lowest number of tests in the region at 774 persons per million, and on the basis of priority testing only (for the already sick). Reporting time is also slow. On the average, confirmation of a COVID-19 case comes two days after the time it has been reported after the death of the patient.

Assuming data of confirmed cases are not yet that reliable, we should look at the acid test the number of deaths.

The Philippines death curve is still on the rise. Deaths have risen from the first time the Philippines registered daily deaths at five, to an average of 12 daily over the last 50 days. Half of the COVID-19 deaths in the country occur among persons aged 65 and above. In fact, among the senior citizens who contracted COVID-19, 29 percent were in severe condition, and 62 percent were in critical condition, with a high fatality rate.

The infection rate among health care workers is also a high 16 percent, compared to an average of two to three percent in the Western Pacific region. Per DOH’s latest announcement, about 1,245 healthcare workers have been infected, with 27 of our heroes passing away. We only have six doctors per 10,000 of our population. And this may very well explain the number of infections our brave doctors are spent and exposed longer, many on double shifts.

Among our LGUs, only San Juan so far is winning. The City of San Juan currently has a doubling time of 9.41 days and has maintained a doubling time of more than five days for 28 days as of April 30. What did San Juan, the ground zero with that first reported case in Greenhills, do to win its battle? Plenty of communication and taking care of their residents. They use the staysafe.ph monitoring app for people with symptoms, they have Palengke on Wheels and strong feeding programs for indigent barangays to limit movement, they passed an ordinance on wearing face masks, and they set up the Kalinga Kontra Korona Center in partnership with San Juan schools.

In the Philippine battlefield against COVID-19, there are battles that we can win. Medical facilities may take time to build but devoting more resources to mass testing can be a quicker win. Then, there are battles that, I would consider, are must-wins.

1. Strong and clear communication should be constant. Look at how contradicting messages are killing people in the US, and how leaders who have belittled the virus in the beginning got their country into serious trouble.

2. “Cleanliness is next to Godliness” should be brought to life, in public and common places everywhere. It is the weapon of Japan, which did not implement a lockdown and did not overly obsess about COVID-19 tests, yet managed to be a big winner against the COVID-19 infection.

3. Solid plan for the poor communities on local and national levels. Remember the crowded tenements in Singapore that caused the relapse? Ours is no equivalent. Our slums are much worse. They should have sufficient water, sanitation supplies, medical facilities nearby, and they should be fed. God said what you do for the least among you, you do for Me. It’s only now that we understood that we would also do it for ourselves. The poor may not be the weakest link. Maybe we are.

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Alexander B. Cabrera is the chairman and senior partner of Isla Lipana & Co./PwC Philippines. He is the Chairman of the Integrity Initiative, Inc. (II, Inc.), a non-profit organization that promotes common ethical and acceptable integrity standards. Email your comments and questions to [email protected]. This content is for general information purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors.