Should Robredo, Pacquiao, and Moreno run?

While the suspense of who will be running for president and vice president will abate on October 8, it will not be over as there is still the deadline for substitution on November, and the possibility of substitution by the same name candidate in the last months before the election. This has happened when Duterte substituted for another person in the 2016 election, and decades ago when the wife of a senatorial candidate replaced her husband who was incapacitated before the election. It is not just shifting alliances that is the practice in Philippine politics, but also shifting names and candidacies. So, it is par for the course, for five or six team-ups filing in the Commission on Elections from Oct. 1 to 8.

There are at least five motives or impetus that makes politicians run for the highest national position; the quest for power and money, achievement of ambition and fame, protection of personal and family interests, redemption of name and honor, and lastly to serve the people. There could be more, but having observed Philippine politics, from far and near for 55 years, these cover almost all motives. We can easily ascribe a combination of these motives to all of the potential candidates.

Bongbong Marcos, is definitely running for the ultimate redemption of the name and legacy of his father and family name in combination with the other motives. Pacquiao and Moreno, primarily for the power, money, and fame clothed in uplifting the people. Lacson, would be the achievement of ambition plus the accompanying power. Robredo’s primacy would be service to the people and family reputation. On top of these main motivations to run, all of them believe they have a chance of winning, which leads us to the proximate reasons why they are declaring to be candidates at this time. It is really to gauge the probability of winning and improving the odds. From now up to the month before the election, to calibrate their moves, and evaluate their options, which includes withdrawing or coalescing with the other candidates. Declaring and filing the certificates of candidacies is just a step in the process. “You have to jump into the lake to know the conditions, the hazards and perils in the water”. Especially at this time with a very volatile social and political environment, with the potential massive shifts in public sentiment brought about by the failures of the incumbent administration, a declared candidate has to be already in the game.

Re-alignments and coalitions will happen in the months leading to election day. The Sara Duterte-Marcos team-up is still in play, the Robredo-Pacquiao team-up is still in play, the Marcos-Duterte team-up is still in play, and Moreno may opt out of the game. Moreno has better options than the others, as he is young and has a longer political horizon. While his entry gave him national recognition, it also exposed his character faults and shortcomings which are better off buried and forgotten, if he waits for the 2028 elections. Consider also the possibility that the Duterte administration ratings keep falling, and Sara decides to run just for Davao mayor. This will open the race into another dimension without the incumbent administration as target. The equation changes drastically and near strategy and tactics redirected and calibrated. The campaign line that Marcos set back the Philippine economy by 15 years and Duterte by five years, will lose its sting even if it is still relevant. It would be interesting to see who would benefit in this scenario.

As I said in a previous column, no presidential tandem has an edge at this time, and I believe up to end --March next year. It will be a suspenseful presidential election that hopefully will result in a president and vice president who will be good for the people and the country.