The rise and fall of the ‘Duterte magic’

He started as a reluctant provinciano hesitant to ascend to the throne, and is ending like a king who wants to remain in the palace even if he will be relegated to the position of a crown prince.

Mayor Rody was like Ricardo Dalisay who zoomed into the capital as a provinciano from being a city mayor of a far-flung city to the palace. He carried some aura of a superhero, who was expected to save the nation from the ineptitude, the seeming lack of concern by his predecessor. Nowadays, President Duterte looks tired, at times, talking incoherently and does not look his usual self. Many of his trusted loyalists are gradually leaving his bandwagon.

President Digong resonated with the “hoi polloi” and he became the hero of the marginalized. He was a street smart, populist icon of the extemporaneous glib talker, who berated people on the air, and via national television. cursed drug lords and corrupt officials. He was easily forgiven for his tough talking image, a head of state and head of government who peppered his lingo with a liberal dose of vulgarities. The people, including many women even applauded him for his sexist jokes, even when he practically and always exceeded the bounds of statesmanlike propriety. He could get away with many unpresidential remarks and his avid followers would even clap their hands when he used to make jokes about people and events.

Today, it seems, there is a visible change of ambiance. The winds are changing directions.

By all appearances, his magic is fast waning and many of his close defenders have distanced themselves from the president. Foremost of them are former speaker Alan Peter Cayetano, senators Koko Pimentel, Manny Pacquiao, and Ping Lacson, former speaker Bebot Alvarez, and all the former cabinet secretaries whom he appointed and then either fired or edged out. Of course, senate president Tito Sotto has left him by daring to run against the president for the post of vice president. Tim Orbos just announced that he is leaving the president's party and is joining Isko Moreno and his Aksyon Demokratiko. All these means a large chunk of voting blocs abandoning the majority coalition. His hatchet man, Secretary Cusi, has no solid following on the ground and lacks the credibility of a Pimentel or a Pacman.

Even the Marcoses have distanced themselves from Malacañang, especially with the inevitable collision between Inday Sara (I don't buy this line that Inday is not running, I heard that in 2016) and Bongbong Marcos. House minority leader Martin Romualdez felt peeved when the president endorsed him for the vice presidency, only to declare that he is running for the same post himself. And watch out for the Villars, the conjugal franchise holders of the Nacionalista Party. Since Bongbong, like Alan Peter, is a member of the NP, the most devastating loss for the administration would be the Villars' inevitable departure from the president's majority coalition. They carry the truckloads of funding.

There is even a possibility that the bloc of GMA may break away from the president if and when the administration will not succeed in defending the indefensible Secretary Francisco Roque. In the senate, who will remain for Duterte, only three: Bong Go, Bato de la Rosa and Francis Tolentino. He may have some loyalists in the House, but even Speaker Alan Velasco may find himself like Bebot Alvarez when Malacañang sees that it is politically expedient to find a bigger ally.

That is how the cookie crumbles. In politics, there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies, only permanent interests. As if we did not hear that line many decades ago. But we seem to never learn from the lessons of history. Shame, shame, shame.