NGCP warns of thin power supply this summer

CEBU, Philippines —  The National Grid Corporation of the Philippines is warning of thin power supply this summer due to higher demand in the new normal.

Also, it is highlighting the need for policies to supporting demand side management to ensure adequate power during the upcoming local and national elections in May 2022.

The Department of Energy forecasted a total peak demand of 12,387 megawatts (MW) for Luzon to occur in the last week of May, a 747 MW increase from the actual 2021 peak load of 11,640 MW which occurred on May 28, 2021.

 For Visayas, the peak demand of 2,252 MW occurred in December 13, 2021 mainly due to the activity brought about by the holiday season. DOE forecast peak for 2022 is 2,528 MW.

While in Mindanao, the peak demand of 2,144 MW occurred in August 4, 2021 and DOE forecast peak for 2022 is 2,223 MW.

“Thinoperating margins (power in excess of demand, which is used to manage and balance the grid) isforecasted in the Luzon grid from April to June due to increase in demand during the summer, which includes the critical election period,” the powertransmission operator said in a statement.

 To alleviate possible power shortages, NGCP appeals to policy makers to immediately explore demand side management strategies to mitigate any possible power supply issues in the coming summer months, especially at or around the time of the presidential elections.

 NGCP said that it coordinates the preparation and submission to the DOE of an annual Grid Operating and Maintenance Program (GOMP), which is the consolidated preventive maintenance schedules of power plants, considering the needed supply to meet the projected demand.

The 2022 GOMP was approved by the DOE on 10 January10, 2022.

 In compliance with the directive of the DOE, no maintenance shutdowns were scheduled during the summer months.

 “NGCP, in compliance with its mandate, coordinated with the generation and distribution sectors so that we could optimize and rationalize our own maintenance schedules, to ensure sufficiency, at least on paper, of power supply throughout the year,” the company said.

 However, as early as January, some generating units extended their maintenance shutdowns while others derated to decrease their committed generation output.

 As a result, yellow alerts were issued on January 10 and 11. A yellow alert is issued when the excess power is insufficient to meet the transmission grid’s regulating and contingency requirement, pegged at the time at about 495MW and 647MW respectively.

On paper, NGCP saidthat there appears to be sufficient supply to meet demand but the plan on paper, the GOMP, is not always followed.

 “It is when there are unscheduled shutdowns and derations, and extensions of maintenance duration, that grid operations may be disrupted enough to warrant the issuance of a grid alert status,” NGCP added.

 As the transmission service provider, NGCP added that it can only give an overview of the current supply and demand situation, and endeavor to dispatch any and all available grid resources. It cannot intervene on matters concerning power generation. — KQD (FREEMAN)