Marcos is mum

Manolo Quezon raises an interesting point. During this week’s impeachment debacle, where the Senate effectively slammed the brakes on the impeachment proceedings against Sara Duterte by chucking the case back to the House of Representatives, there were two sets of leaders that emerged: the five pro-Duterte Senators actively blocking the case, and the five minority Senators that brought hammer and tongs into the fray.

That left a majority, who were observing how matters would play out, perhaps uncertain of the political winds and the pleasures of the watching voting public. They ended up voting for a breathing period. For Quezon, this was not leadership.

Perhaps, we should be looking towards the president for that leadership. If he had voiced out his agenda, perhaps, even a vendetta, the senators would have known which way the wind blew. Unfortunately, he has been remarkably silent in public, although there were balloons floated right after the inconclusive mid-term elections about how he was open to a reconciliation with the Duterte mob (still waiting on that one, we are).

In private? We can only surmise. What were the president’s wishes to the senators who were about to try the vice president and publicly wring her through the torture chamber? What did he convey to them? Was there a campaign behind closed doors with no telecom signal? Did he cajole, plead, or threaten?

If he had used pressure on them to proceed full speed ahead, perhaps we would have seen an invigorated chamber all ready to do the justice business. If he had used pressure on them to waffle, then waffle they successfully did. That would have been leadership.

But perhaps, he didn’t need to be a leader. If he just took a step back and let them do what they wished to do, then he achieved essentially the same outcome --a kicking of the can down the road, a postponement of difficult responsibilities until the second half of the year, and perhaps more importantly, a brief spell to negotiate more deals.

Because a lot can happen between now and next month. Like ex-prez Duterte getting his wish to be moved from his jail in The Hague to a neutral third country? The name of that country has been hidden from publicly available documents --would that be somewhere with porous borders? And then he gets transferred to that wonderful savior sanctuary? And then he bolts, and disappears into the blue?

Stranger things have happened. Please look up Carlos Ghosn, the CEO of Nissan and Renault, who engineered a fabulous escape from Japanese jail by private jet. Is this the formula that’s being fervently prayed for by the Duterte defense?

The International Criminal Court prosecution team has said they can agree to Duterte’s transfer subject to a set of undisclosed conditions. Hopefully, those conditions include ankle monitors that can never be sawn off. They might not think, however, about the possibility of a ceremonial swearing-in as mayor of Davao City.

I can just imagine the disbelief in the faces of all those in the Philippines who worked so hard to arrest him and fly him out. Mouths agape, hands clutched to chest, curses uttered. And if he escapes, or essentially evades any eventual punishment meted by the body, what could that do to the impeachment proceedings?

Quezon also notes how the Dutertes take no prisoners. In that sense, if the Dutertes miraculously emerge from this muck where they currently swim, all of the senators who voted to remand the case to the House of Representatives would be marked ‘safe’. Which is probably their end goal --unless Marcos is able to negotiate, and achieves the numbers for the outcome desired.

Hence, this brief negotiation period. We, the public, have to wait patiently until the next installment in this drama comes rolling out. What deals will be made? Which faction will prevail? Will the Dutertes foil the Marcos-Romualdez tandem? Is Marcos indeed a lame-duck dead man walking? Or will he cobble together a sweet deal?

While we wait, let’s just celebrate Pride month.