War

Fasten your seat belts. The consequences could be jarring.

Early yesterday, Israel launched massive strikes against Iran. In the first round of strikes, Israel killed General Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The successive wave of attacks appears to be targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, including the main uranium enrichment facility in Natanz that is described as “the heart of Iran’s ballistics missile program.”

In the first few hours since the attacks began, oil prices spiked eight percent. The spike could continue as the scale of this battle rises. The whole world will have to accept costs for this conflagration.

There were signs this massive attack was forthcoming.

Last Wednesday, the US ordered the removal of all non-essential diplomatic personnel from the Middle East. That was a clear sign something big was afoot.

On Thursday, the International Atomic Energy Agency declared Iran was not complying with its nuclear non-proliferation obligations. The country had enough enriched uranium (close to weapons grade) that would enable them to build 10 bombs in less than a year.

For Israel, this is a glaring red line. Iran possessing nuclear weapons is an existential threat to the Jewish state. Remember that the radical Islamist regime ruling the country has the destruction of Israel at the top of its agenda.

The US knew Israel has drawn up plans for a massive missile strike on Iran since last month. The Trump administration, however, has been trying to dissuade Tel Aviv from attacking – pleading that US-Iran negotiations be given a chance to succeed.

The next round of negotiations was scheduled for this weekend in Oman. That has likely fallen into utter irrelevance.

After several rounds of talks, the US-Iran negotiations appear headed nowhere. The Americans imposed conditions Iran will never accept. Without strong missile capabilities, Iran will lose its status as a regional power.

Besides, the Trump administration in Washington has been quickly losing its ability to win friends and influence nations. Recall that during the campaign, Trump boasted he would end the war in Ukraine in a day. Nothing has happened with that and an exasperated Trump now threatens to simply walk away from the diplomatic effort.

Since he imposed tariffs on the rest of the world last April, the US lost credibility with allies and enemies alike. Nations are trying to distance from the chaos that gripped Washington since Trump returned to power. It does not help that Trump retreats whenever challenged – earning him the nickname TACO for Trump Always Chickens Out. With the arbitrary tariffs facing strong challenge in the courts, all other nations would rather sit and wait for final outcomes rather than initiate trade talks.

In the eyes of the rest of the world, the US has lost reliability for anything. Because of that, Washington’s diplomatic clout has been vastly diminished. The global order cannot depend on a country ruled by a clown.

Tehran has threatened to respond to any Israeli attack with a massive missile strike on Israel. What that achieves is to make it necessary for Israel to demolish Iran’s missile strike capability after the first wave of attack. This is what seems to be happening hours after the first strike. Israel cannot attack at half-strength.

Should Iran manage to save enough of its missile force to mount a counterattack, the US and other allies in the region are obliged to help Israel’s defense. We saw this happen the last time Iran mounted a missile attack on Israel months ago.

Tehran also threatened to strike US forces in the region. This would include the carrier strike force positioned in the Persian Gulf as well as an assortment of US military bases in the vicinity. Should US forces come under attack, Washington will be forced to join the fray – however reluctant Trump might be to escalate involvement.

Even if its main missile bases are destroyed by Israel’s first strike, Iran has an impressive drone force. But this slow-moving force will take forever to effectively threaten the Jewish homeland. What it could do, however, is to choke the main shipping route that passes the narrow Strait of Hormuz.

Things could be complicated by the Houthis stepping up attacks in the Red Sea. This will effectively choke another vital channel for global trade.

If the strait is shut down, oil supplies cannot move through. In due time, this will threaten global oil supplies. In the interim, it will force up prices. A full-scale Iran-Israel war is the worst case scenario for predictable fossil fuel supply and pricing.

If Trump’s insane tariffs fail to push the world into recession, high oil prices and uncertain supply will make recession certain. What is happening is not the usual regional armed skirmish. This is a major war with severe global consequences.

What happens when Tehran’s friends in Moscow or Beijing decide to join the fray? Putin does not seem to be the type to stand by while a major ally is devastated. The peril facing the global economy will certainly be magnified.

For Israel, certainly, this is the time to attempt destruction of Iran’s nuclear capabilities. If they wait any longer, it might be too late. They cannot simply sit back while Trump loses his grip on global affairs and while Tehran enhances its missile capabilities. This is a decisive geopolitical moment.