What happens if both Digong and Sara are acquitted?

The Villars, Cayetanos, and Senator Imee Marcos have declared they are for the Dutertes. This is bad news to the administration alyansa. The Nacionalista Party, with Mark Villar, and possibly Camille and Pia as well as Imee going back to the Senate and joining Alan Peter and Robinhood, the number of pro-Duterte senators is increasing. That means the impeachment prosecution cannot muster 16 votes for conviction.

If more pro-Duterte senators are elected, that means goodbye to impeachment. If Bong Go, Bato de la Rosa, Camille Villar, Pia Cayetano, Erwin and Ben Tulfo, Manny Pacquiao, Willy Revillame, Lito Lapid, Bong Revilla, and Imee Marcos maintain their upward trajectories, then the incoming Senate will most likely return a verdict of "not guilty". What happened to the former president has been dramatized enough to gain more sympathy votes.

There are four scenarios that can unfold to both former president Rodrigo Duterte and Vice President Sara Duterte Carpio. First, both may be convicted, Digong by the ICC and Sara by the Philippine Senate. That shall spell the end of the dream of another Duterte in Malacañang. But this scenario appears to be a long shot.

Second is if Digong is convicted and Sara is acquitted. Sara may be elected president in 2028. That shall be the end of the Marcoses for at least six years. Third, Digong may be acquitted and Sara convicted. Then Sara shall say goodbye to her presidential ambitions. She should go home to Davao and plant durian. Fourth, a very optimistic scenario, where both are acquitted. Mary Grace Piattos shall rejoice. Bong Go may become vice president and Bato Senate president. Goodbye to the Tulfos. The Marcoses shall go home to Batac to plant tobacco.

I’m not a fan of the Dutertes or Marcoses. But to be realistic, it’s possible Sara may be acquitted. It isn’t easy to get 16 votes to convict in the Senate. If Go, Bato, Willy, Sotto, Lapid, Revilla, the two Tulfos, Pia, Abby, and Camille win, I think Sara will be acquitted. If Francis Tolentino also wins then conviction will be next to impossible.

We should remember impeachment isn’t a judicial proceedings, it’s a political warfare. The side with the numbers wins. The prosecution cannot assure the vote of 16 senators to convict. But the defense has nine votes to acquit. I’m not a Nostradamus, but I shall go by the patterns of expressed declarations and body language as well as "utang na loob". I am almost 100% sure the prosecution cannot get 16 senators to convict.

On the other hand, the following shall vote to acquit Sara: Robinhood, Bato, Go, Mark and Camille Villar, Alan Peter and Pia Cayetano, Lapid, Revilla, Jinggoy, Sotto, Willy, Pacquiao, Salvador, and even Tolentino (who couldn’t have won without Duterte support). Even Migz Zubiri, being from Mindanao would most likely. And with these 16 for Duterte, where shall BBM and Martin Romualdez get their dreamed conviction?

In The Hague, there were a number of acquittals as well. The defense chief legal counsel, Nickolas Kauffman boasted he can get an exoneration. Records show that such notorious characters as Laurent Gbagbo and Charles Ble Goude walked free despite clamor from so-called victims.

On January 15, 2019, Gbagbo and Goude were acquitted by trial chamber number one for crimes against humanity in Cote d’ Ivoire in 2010 and 2011. I can cite many other cases of acquittals. It isn’t impossible to imagine a scenario where Duterte may get the sympathy of the three judges, considering his age.

In the event that both Digong and Sara are exonerated, the capital of the Philippines may be transferred to the island garden city of Samal. Mayor Mike Rama may become executive secretary and my good friend Bebot Bello may get the Department of Foreign Affairs portfolio. Pam Baricuatro may become the next secretary of Tourism.

Finally, Governor Gwen may at last agree to become our senator from Cebu. Knowing the Garcias, they can survive under any administration: FM, Cory, FVR, Erap, GMA, PNoy, PRRD, or BBM. The Garcias, like the old Osmeñas, Duranos, and Cuencos are the best species designed for evolution.

The victory of Digong and Sara may mean the Marcoses shall be next to be brought to The Hague. As Erap used to quip: “Weather-weather lang yan.” But the Garcias shall never become extinct under any weather conditions. And, in case you ask, Mike Rama also. Until the Ramas and Garcias shall exterminate each other, politically, of course.