Surviving 2023

Having survived the worst of COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021 and the effects of the pandemic on public health and the economy, almost half of the Filipinos are probably more confident of surviving 2023. A recent SWS survey said 47% of respondents expected improved lives this year. Many relatives and friends were lost in the past three years and 70% had their livelihood and finances affected. It was only the 20% upper and higher classes, and the political families that weren’t affected. The local and foreign upheavals haven’t dissipated but are continuing, maybe to a lesser degree, and problems both man-made and natural are happening and will happen. The man-made due to politicians and governments.

The “headwinds” confronting the world: The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine which is continuously disrupting fuel and food supplies, environmental disasters like the earthquake in Turkey and Syria, forest fires in Chile, global inflation, the rebellions in Myanmar, Syria, and Iran, and the political instability in Sri-Lanka, Peru, and Venezuela. Add to these the civil unrest in France and UK on the reduced incomes. All isn’t well with the world and it won’t be resolved in a year or two. It will take credible and responsible governments around four years to improve conditions in many countries. The Philippines, as part of the global community/economy will be affected by these headwinds, while coping with its own social, political, and economic problems.

I attended two economic briefings by major Philippine banks, and read the prognosis of private think tanks and the government, and most point out a slower growth of the Philippine economy (GDP) of between 5% to 5.5%. This is better than other developing countries, but falls short of our government’s target to reduce poverty, reduce budget deficit/government debt, stabilize/set the economy’s growth trajectory. This 5% GDP growth is a growth rate that could be achieve even if the government doesn’t do anything, as this will still be 70% consumption driven by the private sector. An activist government driven by good governance with minimal graft and corruption, will increase domestic and foreign investment and be the component that will push the GDP growth in 2023 to 8% and above. So far, eight months into his administration, BBM and his appointees have been uninspiring and haven’t made concrete achievements. There is also the baggage of the reputation of the Marcoses and his appointed cronies on corruption, and being above the law on taxes and other privileges, that have people holding their breath and judgment. Hopefully, some of BBM’s foreign trips will result in major confidence and investments from foreign investors to justify the huge expenses of his eight and counting foreign trips.

Given the above scenario, how should/will the Filipinos in the different social classes survive? The 50% middle class will have to be the most pro-active, as inflation, higher borrowing costs, and reduced demand and supply of some commodities affect them most. Their depleted savings have to be restored by lifestyle changes. Increasing earnings by additional employment and better deployment of earning assets will be good. Improved budgeting and good housekeeping are also in order. The 20% upper class and political families can ride through this slower GDP growth and even a recession and don’t need advice, but should probably be encouraged to invest and share resources in an environment of political credibility and stability. The 30% in the lower class should be more demanding of the political promises of their share of the Tallano gold and the ?100,000 monthly per family assured them in the last election, or at least a government that cares for them.

I would like to caution all on some polls/surveys, as a recent survey results showed that 57% of Filipinos are happy with their love life and at the same time, 51% prefer someone rich but ugly, while 46% prefer good-looking but poor. Considering our economic class distribution and how many voters got fooled by surveys in the last election, many Filipinos have inconsistent and unexplainable opinions, so we keep on electing the wrong government officials.