US vs. China, Phl vs. Kuwait

A United States four-star general warned a few days ago that war could break out between the US and China over Taiwan as early as 2025. For all our bitching about the US coming to our aid over our own conflict with China in accordance with the terms of a mutual defense treaty, it appears it is now us who might instead be required much earlier to come to the aid of the US pursuant to those same terms. How funny, if it is not so dire.

Then the Philippines could also face a different kind of war with Kuwait over Filipino workers in that country as early as immediately. While it is time to meaningfully reassess our relationship with that Middle Eastern country following the murder of Filipina Jullebee Ranara by the teenaged son of her employer, an immediate deployment ban pushed by hotheads could trigger a backlash we can only regret.

A ban on further deployment of Filipino workers to Kuwait may save these Filipinos from any future abuse in that country. But it will not save the thousands who remain there on live contracts and who, as a result of our knee-jerk reaction, could now become objects of resentment and targets for recrimination. We could end up creating more problems than we can solve.

And so it is hoped that for us to come to a safe landing through the looming turbulence, our leaders should make decisions that are sober and practical. Our leaders must be possessed with great equanimity and not go off in directions spurred by nothing more animated than passion. Having badgered the US for reassurances about its treaty commitments, I think it the better part of prudence to now shut up.

If the US wants to come to our aid, or to the aid of any country for that matter, I do not think it needs any great prodding. It will do whatever is in its best interest, treaty or no treaty, within the law or outside of it. But if we keep breathing on its neck, it just might do the same to us, especially now that a top US general has articulated a scenario that is so chilling it has sent the US establishment into a denial mode.

General Mike Minihan, head of the US Air Mobility Command, said: "I hope I am wrong. But my gut tells me we will fight in 2025. Xi secured his third term and set his war council in October 2022. Taiwan's presidential elections are set in 2024 and will offer Xi a reason. The US presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a distracted America. Xi's team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025."

2025 is just two years away. And because China is more likely to go to war over Taiwan, which it considers as a rogue province, than it is to go to war with the Philippines over claims in the South China Sea that involves also other claimant countries, we might start redirecting our sleepness nights toward thinking what our options are if the US asks for our help, which I think it certainly will.

It is terribly terrifying for the US to ask the Philippines for parking rights to its warships, warplanes, weapons, and boots because we cannot say no after having badgered it endlessly for help out of our unwarranted fear of an impending Chinese attack. Terribly terrifying because the moment we say yes, we become active participants in a war over Taiwan. Those who always wanted to confront China should be conscripted first.

But before anything happens in 2025, let us consider our readiness to deal with the fallout of a deployment ban of Filipino workers to Kuwait. Are we ready for an emergency repatriation of the thousands of Filipinos in Kuwait who will become the unintended victims of a wrong move we intend to make against an entire country for a crime committed by one of its citizens? Kuwaitis will regard the ban as an attack and will retaliate.