A two wo(man) presidential race it is

FROM FAR AND NEAR - Ruben Almendras - The Freeman

The last released poll survey on the election was commissioned/paid by a sponsor and is part of the Cambridge Analytica strategy, so this has to be viewed with a discerning perspective. If we correct the skewed sample population wherein they increased the geographic, demographic, and economic representation of the groups favoring their candidate; and the biased conduct of the ground survey, the March 16 poll results would show that Robredo and BBM are statistically tied at 40%. This bias is even enhanced when the pollster’s spoke person opined that the 9% rise of Robredo and the 5% drop of BBM is not significant, while stating that the margin of error is plus or minus 2%. And allowing the client to decide the timing of the publication to their campaign schedule.

Without even adjusting the percentages for the biases; in the poll surveys by the same company at 7 weeks before the 2016 election, Duterte had less than the 25% rating that Robredo had as of mid-March 2022. In the same survey for the Vice-Presidential race at that time, Robredo was less than 20% against BBM of over 20%. Therefore, Robredo’s poll rating as of March 16, 2022 is much better than Duterte as presidential candidate in 2016, and she also has a higher rating now as presidential candidate compared to her 2016 rating as Vice-presidential candidate in the same time frame. It is safe to assume that Robredo and BBM are in a dead heat as of mid-March 2022, and this is a TWO WO(MAN) RACE.

It is statistically impossible for the 8 other remaining presidential candidates to catch up as they are in the 2% to 3% range and their combined percentages will not reach 20%. Trend analysis and visible physical data on their campaign sorties and rallies do not show large attendance and crowds for these candidates. While they may have their reasons for staying in the race, they are all now considered “advocacy candidates”, who are in the race to promote their various advocacies. It is time for them to re-assess their situation and decide what will be good for the country.

The final count and the winner will happen after May 9, 2022; but we have to consider the following: The Robredo campaign is turning out to be a peoples campaign fueled by volunteers who spend time and their own resources to organize,  contribute ideas, make campaign materials, convince voters, attend sorties/rallies, and dominate the social media. The multi-sectoral endorsements from all social classes for Robredo are massive and still coming. According to some politicians, the crowds in Robredo’s campaign sorties are reminiscent of “People Power” and the Ramon Magsaysay campaigns in size and fervor. It is now an emotional campaign, bolstered by a large youth sector who have not even experienced the martial law years, but are dedicated volunteers. It has become a “moral campaign” of good versus evil that the religious sector, from the various Christian religions to the prayer groups are now endorsing the morally correct candidates who are on the side of Truth and Justice. It is now a fight for our children and grandchildren. A fight for God and Country.

The business community figured out earlier, that it will be a TWO WO(MAN) RACE  and had acted accordingly in their contributions. However, it is the consensus by economists, think tanks and multi-lateral financial organizations, that Robredo will be better for the Philippine economy, especially interns of investor confidence, coming out of the pandemic and the Philippine governments’s huge foreign and domestic debt. A Robredo presidency will add a 2.5% to the projected 5.5% GDP growth in the next 5 years that is direly needed to stabilize the Philippine economy, reduce unemployment and poverty incidence.


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