Labor and business for Robredo’s presidency

Coming from a deep economic recession in the last two years due to the pandemic with Philippine GDP contracting at 16%, the May 2022 elections takes a greater importance for the labor and business sectors. The unemployment and underemployment peaked at 9% and 18% respectively at one time, while poverty incidence hit 20%. Some 70% of small and medium businesses have closed and/or struggling to survive and big business have recorded huge losses amounting to billions of pesos. In the second half of 2021 the economy has started to recover and is expected to grow by 5% to 6% in 2022 and get back to the GDP figures of 2019 by 2023. To achieve these targets, including to be a “medium developing country “status by 2025, we need to grow at the 8% to 9% annual rate in the next four years, under a good, effective and efficient president.

The declining COVID-19 infection numbers augur well for more opening of the economy by March, which together with the election spending should perk up the consumption component of the economy. This has to be supported by the government expenditure component, which is constrained by the already ?12.5 trillion government debt and the lower expectation of tax revenues. So, it will be the investment component of the GDP that has to compensate for the shortfall. And to get these domestic and foreign investments, the investors and the people have to have confidence and trust in the next president.

The severe unemployment/underemployment in the last two years have left deep scars on the labor sector and will disappear faster if the economy grows at the 9% range. At this growth rate, our unemployment/under employment and poverty level will be back at 2019 level. Only a massive investment from domestic and foreign investors can generate these many jobs in this short time. And the consequential effect of these investments is the increase in domestic consumption that will revive the SMES. Labor and SMEs have been at the short end of the pandemic alleviation initiatives of the government, and have been critical of the corruption in the PhilHealth and the government procurement of medical supplies that favored crony fly-by-night companies that suddenly amassed billions in sales. They are expecting the next president to level the playing field for them.

Big businesses on the other hand, having survived and poise for growth again, are longing for a government and a president that is accountable, transparent, fair, and just for cronies and non-cronies. These big guys can take care of themselves from domestic and foreign competition as long as the rules apply to all. There is also a group of big businessmen who are apprehensive that Marcos will pursue a claim on their businesses as earlier manifested by the Marcos family, that are most concerned on who should be the next president to be able to get truth and justice.

Nomura Securities of Japan, one of the most respected economic think tanks, recently published an analysis on who would be the presidentiable who will be good for the Philippine economy, and Robredo came out as best for the country. In the same week 160 Filipino economists from the government, academe, and the private sector expressed their support for Robredo for president, as they believe she will be best for the economy in the next six years to achieve the $7,000 per capita GDP target in 2025.

The next president of the Philippines should have the three C’s; character, credibility, and confidence of the investors for the country to be bankable to lenders and investors, and if we want our country to progress for all.