The political chances of the Lacson-Sotto tandem

Their tagline should be "the centrist alternative" and not rightist like the administration or leftist like the opposition. But what is their true ideology? What are their fundamental principles? What are their basic platforms? Did Panfilo “Ping” Lacson not already run for president and lose? He succeeded only in dividing the votes of the opposition, thus helping the leading candidate to wrap up his lead. He was therefore an unwitting spoiler, or worse, the top bet's willing accomplice for a divide-and-rule strategy.

In 2004, Ping Lacson ran for president against Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, Fernando Poe Jr., Raul Roco, and Eddie Villanueva. GMA got 12,905,808 votes, or 39.99%, while FPJ garnered 11,782,232 or 36.51%, with a slim margin of only 1,123,576 votes. Lacson got 3,510,080 or 10.88% of the total votes. Roco garnered 2,082,762, which was merely 6.45%, while Villanueva got 1,988,100, or 6.16%. Had Lacson not run for president, FPJ would have won over GMA. And so, indeed, Lacson was responsible for the victory of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. The same could be said of the late Raul Roco and of Eddie Villanueva. Now, if presidential daughter Sara Duterte Carpio runs against Manny Pacquiao or Leni Robredo, or both, the candidacy of Ping Lacson will only assure a Sara victory. Thus, President Duterte was trying to humor Tito Sotto in his SONA. The Dutertes need a spoiler, and Lacson walks into that trap. Remember that Manong Rody is the most astute and street smart political strategist.

The role of spoiler was also played by Eddie Villanueva, Gibo Teodoro, and even Manny Villar, Richard Gordon, and Jamby Madrigal with a guy named Nicanor Perlas in 2010. It was the fight between PNoy and Erap. PNoy, of course, got 15,2 million votes (42.08%) against Erap's 9.4 million (26.25%) and Villar's 5.5 million and Gibo's 4 million Eddie Villanueva's 1.1 million. Had there been a one-on-one fight, I had a feeling that most of the votes for Villar, Gibo, and Villanueva would have gone to Erap and he would have triggered a constitutional problem on the issue of whether or not a former president could run again. Later, in 2016, had Grace Poe given way to Mar Roxas, her votes of 9,100,991 would have been added to Mar's 9,978,175. Therefore, the anti-Duterte votes of 19,079,166 would have overwhelmed Duterte's votes of 16,601997 or a lead of 2,447,169. It was Grace Poe who made Duterte win.

In 1992, seven candidates ran for president, which made FVR win by a mere 23.58% or 5.3 million votes, followed by Miriam Defensor Santiago's 4,468,173 (19.72%), Danding Cojuangco's 4,116,376 (18.17%), Ramon Mitra's 3,316,661 (14.64%), Imelda Marcos' 2,338,294 (10.32), Jovito Salonga's 2,302,124 (10.16%), and Salvador Laurel's 770,046 (3.4%). Never mind the 1998 polls because the runaway winner Erap got 39.86% and De Venecia only got 15.87%. Raul Roco's 13.83% was insignificant.

I have a strong premonition that the entry of Ping Lacson in 2022 will spoil the dreams of Leni Robredo, Manny Pacquiao, and Bongbong Marcos. The biggest beneficiary of his candidacy will be Sara Duterte Carpio. Those who do not want to learn from the hard lessons of history are bound to repeat them. That will be their destiny and their penalty for not learning. Sad but inevitable.