Regional voting patterns

It has been said that, while UK, Canada and Australia vote according to economic alignments of either conservatism for the landed and business elites or the more progressive labor sectors, and while the Americans vote for Republicans to have less taxes and smaller government budget or for Democrats for bigger government support for the working class, the Filipinos vote according to regional groupings, of Ilocanos, Tagalogs, Visayans, Warays, Ilonggos or Bicollanos. Let us test the truth of this hypothesis.

Traditionally, based on historical figures of regional patterns, the Philippines is always examined based on voting results according to 12 regional voting corridors. The biggest slice is the so-called Pangasinan, Central Luzon, Metro Manila and Calabarzon corridor with a whopping 21.6 million voters and commands 39. 8% of the total electorate. The second is the Northern Mindanao corridor, including Region 10 and Caraga, with 4.088 million voters at 7.52%. Third is the Solid North composed of Regions 1, 2, and CAR (Ilocos Region minus Pangasinan, the Cagayan Valley and the Cordilleras, including Baguio) with 4.078 million. Fourth is the Central Visayas or Region 7 minus Negros Oriental with 3.6 million or 6.6%. Fifth, the Bicolandia with 3.1 million or 5.74%. The sixth is the combination of MIMAROPA (Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon and Palawan) with ARMM or Bangsa Moro with a total of 2.8 million or 5.1%. Seventh is the Cotabato Corridor (Socksargen and Maguindanao) with 2.72 million or 5%.

All the rest are Eastern Visayas, Samar-Leyte with 4.97% with 2.698 million; the 5 Davaos (Norte, Sur, Oriental Occidental and de Oro, formerly Compostela Valley) with 2.698 million or 4.89%; Panay with 2.578 million or 4.74%; and Negros with 2.449 million or 4.51%. Last is the Zamboanga Corridor with 1.931 million with 3.56%.

Metro Manila always voted for the opposition in the elections of 1946, 1949, 1953, 1957, 1961, 1965, in 1986, 1992, 1998, 2004, 2010, and 2010. The people of Metro Manila always vote against the incumbent in Malacañang. The Solid North always votes for the Marcoses. The province with a perfect record of voting for all those who won is Negros Oriental, except only in 2016, when Negros Oriental voted for Roxas instead of Duterte. This province voted for PNoy in 2010, for GMA in 2004, for Erap in 1998, for FVR in 1992, for Cory in 1986 and for Marcos in 1965, in 1969 and 1981. Negros Oriental also voted for Garcia in 1957, for Magsaysay in 1953, for Quirino in 1949, for Roxas in 1946, and for Manuel Quezon in 1935 and 1941.

As to the question of whether a candidate's home province would always vote for its native bet, in 1935, Tayabas voted for Quezon, Cavite voted for Aguinaldo, and Ilocos Norte voted for Aglipay. In 1941, Tayabas voted for Quezon. His rival Juan Sumulong even lost to Quezon in Rizal. In 1946, Capiz voted for Roxas and Cebu voted for Don Sergio. In 1949, Ilocos Sur voted for Quirino and Batangas voted for Laurel. In 1953, Zambales voted for Magsaysay and Ilocos voted for Quirino. In 1957 Bohol voted for Garcia. In 1961, Pampanga voted for Macapagal and Bohol voted for Garcia. In 1965, Ilocos Norte voted for Marcos and Pampanga voted for Macapagal, but in 1965, Serging Osmeña lost to Marcos in Cebu because Congressmen Durano of the first, Kintanar of the fourth, Maning Zosa of the sixth and Tereso Dumon of the seventh all abandoned Serging and supported Marcos.

In 1986, Tarlac supported Cory. In 1992, Pangasinan voted for FVR. In 1998, San Juan voted for Erap. In 1994, Pampanga supported GMA. In 2010, Tarlac voted for PNoy and, in 2016, Davao and practically, the whole Mindanao, supported Manong Rody.

In 2022, Marcos will have the Solid North, Robredo will have Bicol and Pacquiao or Inday Sara will be supported by Mindanao. The Filipinos never learn.