Political models

Every time we watch a weather report on TV news programs, the weather specialist always refers to some models in making day-to-day forecasts. What do we mean by “models”? I learned that mathematical model is a description of a system using mathematical concepts and language. The process is called mathematical modeling. Whew!

 True to the off-tangent nature of this column. In all my imperfections, I will attempt to replicate a weatherman’s forecasting in the political scene. The models that I will use in making these predictions have been those which we observed in the past several years.

Depending upon the health of Cebu City Mayor Edgardo Labella, he is expected to run for reelection. Vice Mayor Michael Rama will, in all probability, still be his running mate. I have felt though the efforts of the subalterns of the mayor shopping for a new partner for reasons of their own. There are many of these Machiavellian ways and I don’t want to enumerate them here because it will not benefit the mayor. Labella, I surmise, must be aware of these moves and it will be his advantage if he directs his men to desist. Rama, on his part, has been tireless in promoting their continued partnership. Wherever he has gone (and believe me, he has kept the same intensify as in the campaign period), Rama always voices his continued support for Labella. I like to imagine that his positive approach will just overwhelm the mayor’s separatist operators.

The question that comes next is the political party Labella and Rama will be candidates of. It is normally expected that they will continue to don the PDP-Laban colors under which they ran in 2019. Despite the rational expectation, however, I have to ask that question because there are developments in the national level affecting the party. The changes in the personalities occupying the organizational hierarchy will definitely tell on the alignments on the local scene. For instance, the newly-enthroned party president is Sen. Manny Pacquiao, who is not timid about his presidential ambitions. His directions will bear heavily. Considering that Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte is also reportedly angling at Malacañang and she doesn’t belong (yet) to PDP-Laban, a persuasive Rodrigo Duterte can sway the Labella-Rama tandem away from PDP. We shall carefully watch whatever developments prop up in the first quarter of 2021.

There are late rumors that a Bebot Abellanosa-Franklyn Ong team is building up for BOPK despite the persistent perception that former mayor Tomas Osmeña still wants to reclaim the Cebu City mayorship. These rumors are anchored on the speculations that Osmeña, judging from his allegedly dismal performance during his debate against Labella, may no longer be the sharp Tommy that he used to be. In that verbal joust, Tommy was a bumbling debater whose arguments were embarrassingly skewed. For that supposed reason, he should no longer be the bet of the group. Add to that talk is the presumed logistics of Bebot and Franklyn is heftier than any probable tandem. But, of course, BOPK is Tommy! Whatever he says, happens.

Whoever the BOPK pushes to face Labella-Rama, what national party will they run under? The Liberal Party or the Nacionalista Party? In times past, BOPK boasted that it did not need the support of a national political party even if behind such braggadocio it always affiliated itself with the nation’s leading electoral organizations. In the 2022 polls, links to national parties will mean something to local candidates. All political models have to be reckoned with.