The sinking reelection chances of President Trump

As of today, a few days before the November 3 US polls, the chances of President Donald Trump to remain in the White House has been reduced from positive 2 for every 100 to a negative one. There is no more probability of a Trump reelection. All the polls are pointing to the inevitable result, which is the victory of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party.

A summary of all polling results from various organizations, including CNN, the Economist, Politico, Cook Political Report, and an outfit called FiveThirtyEight, aside from the consensus of all leading political analysts, from the east coast to the western states of California, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, and Hawaii, indicate that President Donald Trump will join in historical annals, past presidents Jimmy Carter, George HW Bush (the father), John Adams and his son, John Quncy Adams, William Howart Taft (in whose honor Taft Avenue in Manila had been named), and more than 20 others. John F. Kennedy was also one-termer because he was assassinated.

The Economist predicts that Joe Biden has a 92% chance to win while Trump has only 8%. Politico sees that Biden will get a minimum of 279 electoral votes, or seven more than what is required to win. Trump will only get 179. And there are 80 votes that are too close to call. The Cook Political Report is seeing no less than 290 electoral votes for Joe Biden and only 163 votes for Trump, with 85 toss-up votes. But even if we give all the 85 to Trump, he will still lose to Biden, 292 to 248. Thus, there is no way that the incumbent can win over the overwhelming votes of the Democrats, which have been immensely augmented by surges of black, at least half of the Latinos, and 70% of Asian Americans, including Filipinos.

Biden is going to win, not mainly because he is a strong candidate, but because Trump is the easiest to beat because of the way he mishandled the COVID pandemic, his relentless efforts to repeal the highly-popular Obamacare, or the affordable healthcare law, which the Democrats painstakingly enacted, despite the strong oppositions put up by the Republicans. Trump is also getting a lot of backlash due to his insistence to get hurried and last-minute Senate confirmation for his Supreme Court nominee, Justice Amy Garrett, to replace the highly-competent and popular Ruth Bader Ginsburg, despite the fact that the Senate and the GOP administration is most likely nearing the point of becoming a lame duck.

The blacks, the women, and other progressives, including LGBTs, are voting in advance and in big droves due to Trump's racist policies, exacerbated by the series of killings by uniformed men of some innocent African-American men. The president is also losing a lot of his base supporters among the Latino voters because of his anti-migration policies, of his reported racist slurs and supposed insults against Mexicans, allegedly calling them drug couriers and rapists. The Democratic governors and city mayors of southern border states are campaigning hard against Trump, not really in favor of Biden. Anyone but Trump.

The campaign against Trump sees former president Barack Obama campaigning hard for his former vice president in Florida and southern states, Bill and Hillary Clinton, covering the midwestern states, and even the old Jimmy Carter campaigning in Georgia. The biggest enemy of Trump is not Biden but himself, his arrogance and his divisiveness. He will soon be judged by the people that he hurt, and there are millions of them.