Promising news and trust

RT or effective reproduction number is a way of measuring an infectious disease’s capacity to spread. Rt signifies the average number of people that one infected person will pass the virus to.

Rt less than 1 is good news. If the Rt is kept low, the number of people who would be infected will be less.

For example, an Rt of “0.5 means that 100 people would infect only 50, who would infect 25, who would infect 13. Rt about 1 means the virus would infect more and quickly.” On the other hand, an Rt of 1.5 “would see 100 people infect 150, who would in turn infect 225, who would infect 338. In three rounds of infection, the number of people with the virus would have more than quadrupled to 438.”

Tuesday night, Peter Julian Cayton, statistician of the Resilience Institute of the University of the Philippines, shared this promising news:

“Based on the analysis of Reproduction Number (Rt) on Onset data, Cebu appears to have improved in their transmission situation since July 7. It is at 0.6170418, with 95% interval between 0.5789652 and 0.6563139, sufficient evidence for declining transmission of COVID-19. We hope this continues and that recoveries follow through with the situation.”

He also shared the promising news that the spread of Covid-19 in Cebu City has also been declining – “as of July 12, the Rt based on onset date is at 0.5571 with 95% interval at (0.5024, 0.6146), sufficient evidence for declining COVID-19 transmission.”

Oh, if only everyone continues to follow health protocols of staying home, keeping physical distance, wearing face masks, among others, then can you imagine how reassuring it will be to know that the spread is slowing with less positive cases and more recoveries. However, we cannot yet claim complete victory and relax our guard as the virus is still around and no conclusive treatment has been discovered.

Also, the recent reports of lowered Rt have been based on DOH data which are still in the process of being harmonized as of this writing. Will the harmonized, hopefully, more reliable data show the same lower reports of less cases and lower Rts? We sincerely hope so.

Still, amid this ongoing uncertainty, amidst the lack of clear, holistic COVID policy nationally and locally, we continue to welcome promising developments and stay in trust.

“When is the time to trust? Is it when all is calm, when waves the victor’s palm, and life is one glad psalm of joy and praise?

Nay! But the time to trust is when the waves beat high, when storm clouds fill the sky, and prayer is one long cry, oh help and save!

When is the time to trust? Is it when friends are true? Is it when comforts woo, and in all we say and do we meet but praise?

Nay! But the time to trust is when we stand alone, and summer birds have flown, and every prop is gone, all else but God.

What is the time to trust? Is it some future day, when you have tried your way, and learned to trust and pray by bitter woe?

Nay! But the time to trust is in this moment’s need, poor, broken, bruised reed! Poor, troubled soul, make speed to trust thy God.

What is the time to trust? Is it when hopes beat high, when sunshine gilds the sky, and joy and ecstasy fill all the heart?

Nay! but the time to trust is when our joy is fled, when sorrow bows the head, and all is cold and dead, all else but God.” (Taken from July 21 reading of Streams in the Desert )