Policy insights on lifting the ECQ

A university has three core functions in society: instruction, research, and extension. But as classrooms (instruction) remain closed, academics across various disciplines are using their expertise through research and community extension to help society fight the COVID-19 pandemic.

Universities extend help to the communities by, among others, mobilizing their laboratories to produce ethyl alcohol and personal protective equipment. Most importantly, they share information and research data with analysis by their leading experts. Who doesn’t know by now John Hopkins University? Its coronavirus resource center has been at the forefront of the international response to COVID-19.

In the country, the University of the Philippines (UP) has been sharing its scientific know-how in fighting the virus (i.e. developing testing kits). UP has also been providing forecasts and insights for policy makers to overcome the challenges brought by the pandemic.

A team of UP faculty working with OCTA Research released their latest forecasts and insights last week. Here are their insights about Cebu as of their report’s release on April 29 entitled “COVID-19 Forecasts in the Philippines: Sub-National Models for NCR and other Selected Areas.”

The trend has not been good for Cebu over the past two weeks or since April 15. “Over the past week, 283 new cases of Covid-19, or 72% of their total cases, were reported in Cebu. This highlights again the importance of mass testing and available health facilities,” the report said. “If strict protocols are not put in place, any region or province is susceptible to an outbreak at any given time, as long as the SARS-Cov2 virus is still lingering.”

The curve has flattened in Cebu as of the first week of April, but a surge in cases has caused Cebu to fall back in a state of pandemic after it seemed the pandemic had already been contained, the report said.

The reproduction number (R-rate) in Cebu is still greater than 2. Thus, Cebu must be monitored and ECQ must be strictly implemented if Cebu is to contain the spread of COVID-19. “The forecast for May 15 for Cebu, assuming the ECQ is implemented and will improve the situation, projects 1,300 total COVID-19 cases with 50 deaths,” the report said. (But as of Sunday, Cebu has already reached the 1,000 mark in recorded cases of COVID-19.)

The research team recommended that once we see a decline or absence of cases for at least two weeks, three minimum safeguards must be in place: a.) Mass randomized testing capability, b.) Effective contact tracing, and c.) Sufficient health facilities, equipment, and isolation areas to deal with COVID-19 cases and other diseases in the area.

“Moving forward, we reiterate the strategic importance of the continued expansion of our testing capability. This will enable a greater number of our labor force to return to work and hasten economic recovery. The estimate for the United States contained in a roadmap published by the Edmond J. Safra Center of Ethics at Harvard University is between 2 to 6 percent of the population (should be tested).

“Once we confirmed that an individual is infected with the virus through mass testing, we need an efficient and effective contract tracing system to track those who could have been exposed to the infective individual. To this end, the national and local government should consider hiring and training more personnel to do contact tracing.

“Where applicable, digital contact tracing apps should be used. While locating and identifying suspected cases is imperative, proper attention must be given to ensure that the person is not put in harm’s way by maintaining privacy.”