Let’s brace ourselves for economic crisis and chaos

If you think that after the COVID-19 crisis our problem is over, better think again. My own projection, which many of you would hate to hear about is that there will be a severe financial problem, economic crisis, bankruptcies, business closures, massive job losses, hunger, crime, and then social upheaval.

All over the world, from America to Europe, Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, and our own ASEAN region will face some difficult financial and economic problem. Loans will remain unpaid, mortgages will be foreclosed, many will lose their homes, and the socio-economic problems, especially of the third-world countries like ours will bear the brunt of this global recession. Millions of our OFWs will be coming home empty-handed. Even our seamen will stand by without another voyage to board. The land-based migrant workers will also be sent back here by their employers, thus exacerbating our double-digit unemployment and under-employment predicament.

Most of our medium-scale and small scale enterprises, which constitute more than 90% of our employer sector, are likely to undertake retrenchment and redundancy programs and other labor-saving schemes. Most of our micro-enterprises are going to be eliminated from the far-reaching impact of the coronavirus crisis. Our government will be unable to collect billions of expected internal revenues and customs collections. Thus, government projects may slow down, if not altogether be abandoned due to lack of funds. That means more job losses. We will have millions of laborers roaming the streets with nothing to feed their families.

That means that crime rate shall rise sharply, if not exponentially. Theft, robbery, kidnapping for ransom, carnapping, and even the drug trades will worsen. People will be hungry, angry, and become easier targets for NPA recruitment, or enticement by the terrorists groups. Our nation is facing a very serious problem, and if our leaders fail to make right decisions and correct actions, then our next five years will be times of social conflicts and upheavals. Our homes and families will face serious and recurrent risks, our towns and cities will breed many social problems, and government will be unable to maintain peace and order.

This virus is derailing plans and strategies, causing political collision and economic dislocations. Banks are facing many bad debts, loans that cannot be collected, mortgages that are very difficult to foreclose. The financial institutions will face very hard challenges. Companies will need to restructure and go on manpower reduction programs. Millions will lose their sources of income. College students may have to stop schooling and many social services of government may no longer be sustainable. It will be a very difficult next five years. And we need a very smart strategic plan to turn our around the destiny of our economy and the future of our country.

Yes, we can pray, but faith without action is dead. We need to think hard and act smart so as to minimize the pains and burdens of survival and rehabilitation. We need another 10 years to recover and be on track again. The coronavirus is the worst disruptor of our path to progress and development. Everything that we achieved is being washed away by a tiny microscopic organism from China. Sayang.