President Trump's impeachment: Facts and prospects
The US Senate as an impeachment court, has started the proceedings against President Trump. There had only been only four out of the 44 US presidents before Trump who faced impeachment; John Tyler in 1843, Andrew Jackson in 1868, Richard Nixon in 1974, and Bill Clinton in 1998. But Congress didn’t pursue the case against Tyler. Nixon resigned before the House was able to vote on the articles. Technically, only Jackson and Clinton were impeached by the House but were both acquitted by the Senate.
Trump has already been impeached, but the Senate is still trying him, with Chief Justice John Roberts presiding. To be considered impeached is when the House of Representatives votes affirmatively, by simple majority, on specific articles. This was done last December 18. To be considered convicted, is when two-thirds or 67 out of 100 US senators vote to convict. I don't think Democrats can muster that number.
Based on the US Constitution, the proper grounds for impeaching their president are; treason, bribery, and other high crimes and misdemeanors. Here are the four steps. First; a formal complaint is filed and the House opens a formal investigation, whereby articles of impeachment may be filed. Second, the House votes on each of the articles of impeachment. Third, the Senate, conducts trial. Fourth, the voting. Even by one vote less that 67, Trump will be acquitted.
The House voted affirmatively (229 for impeachment and 198 against, largely along party lines) to impeach Trump on December 18, or less than a month ago for abusing his powers, by withholding military aid as a means to pressure Ukraine President Zelensky to investigate against Democrat presidential candidate Joe Biden and his son, Hunter, for alleged corruption; and to investigate a supposed conspiracy pointing to Ukraine, not Russia, for interfering in the 2016 US presidential elections. In the House, Democrats voted to impeach, Republicans voted not to. Only three Democrats joined the Republicans in opposing the impeachment: Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey, Jared Golden of Maine, and Collin Peterson of Minnesota. Their respective districts voted for Trump in 2016.
Based on strictly party line voting, I predict Trump will not be convicted by the Senate, which is composed of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents. It’s extremely difficult, if not impossible, for the Democrats to garner 67 votes. Assuming all 45 Democrats cast positive votes, they need 12 more senators to join them. If they can convince the two independents, they still have to persuade 10 Republicans. Any less means acquittal. Jackson, a Democrat, was acquitted by just one vote in 1868 when seven Republicans voted with Democrats not to convict him.
Clinton, a Democrat, was also acquitted because 10 Republicans voted with 45 Democrats to acquit him. Only 45 Republicans voted to convict. Since impeachment is a numbers' game, Trump will win. Believe me, even when millions hate him for various reasons, he will be reelected too. Unless, of course, an earthshaking tipping point emerges. None is in the offing.
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