Global political tensions escalating
Whenever global politics become turbulent, the world economy suffers. It is a generally accepted truism that political instability and security threats, anywhere in the world, adversely affect economic and financial growth. In 2020, the three main proximate causes of human sufferings are: the worsening global climate change; the escalating ISIS-driven global terrorism, and the relentless geopolitical tensions and security threats. We should tackle them.
This time, we shall focus on geopolitics, as it impinges on the Philippines' own political, social and economic life. A global commentator, Joshua Stowell wrote a treatise in the last quarter of 2019, entitled Conflict and Competition, where he warned that geopolitical tensions will continue to escalate over the next ten years. He asserted that all governments and institutions will be confronted with huge and numerous pressures, both from the external environments and their respective domestic social turbulence. These shall persist even as the international order is being restructured and new and unfamiliar global trends converge and become more complex and complicated.
Major political and economic powers will experience their own internal upheavals as domestic dissent, insurgency and rebellions questioning central government powers shall proliferate. The role of the US as the overall leader of the free world, and as self-appointed guardian over other nations and governments, is currently being challenged seriously by sharpening tensions and persistent doubts and suspicions. Brexit and other pressures shall push the EU to reinvent itself, if only to salvage is deteriorating legitimacy and relevance. The escalating rivalry between Moscow and Beijing continue to exacerbate the instability in the East Asian region. The standoff between Russia and western countries will persist with increasing intensity.
China's powers face concerted and relentless challenge by the youth demonstrators in Hong Kong as well as the unyielding recalcitrance of Taiwan. The North Korean nuclear programs will continue to destabilize and to pose serious dangers to the peace, security and stability of the Asia Pacific Basin countries, including the Philippines. The Chinese incursions into our exclusive economic zones will worsen the instability in the West Philippine Sea. Violent extremism, terrorism, and ISIS-driven violence shall continue to destabilize Afghanistan, Pakistan, as well as the surrounding states. The Middle East and northern Africa, as well as the sub-Saharan African nations shall face turmoil and conflicts driven by extreme poverty and social injustice.
In the Philippines, the threats being poised by the communist rebels, led by the CPP/NPA/NDF, exacerbated by Abu Sayyaf and ISIS local partisans, shall persist despite intensified operations by both the Philippine armed forces, integrated national police and military multipliers. Foreign investors and local business ventures will continue to face serious threats caused by escalating operations from terrorists and rebels. The renewal of the peace talks between the government and Joma Sison will serve no useful purpose. The NPA will continue to ambush and murder government officials and personnel even while their leaders talk peace over the bargaining table.
The government and the people should confront all these geopolitical pressures with a sense of urgency and determination, consistency and firmness. We should be ready to talk peace but we should insist that the other party should come to the negotiations in good faith. But they never will.
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