Magpale should campaign harder in the south, Davide in the north
The latest survey indicates that the MAGDAV (Magpale-Davide) team is leading the GASA (Garcia-Salimbangon) team quite comfortably in the north, and somehow precariously in the south. But Governor Junjun is way, way ahead in both south and north. Vice Governor Agnes Magpale has to work harder as her opponent is a very dynamic campaigner.
The latest surveys indicate Magpale is winning in her own bailiwick in the north, particularly the fifth and the sixth districts, where she leads 65% to 35% over Garcia in most towns, except Liloan, and even 80% to 20% in the vote-rich cities of Danao and Bogo.
She will beat Garcia by landslide in the islands (Camotes and Bantayan), but Magpale must campaign and work harder in the third, fourth, and first districts and still work harder in the second and seventh districts. Governor Davide is most likely to win very big in the south, especially in the second and seventh districts. He must campaign more though in the first, third and fourth districts.
Vice Governor Magpale must spend the rest of the campaign period in the biggest cities and towns where her opponents have better chances. Magpale should consolidate her forces in Carcar, Naga, Minglanilla, Talisay, Toledo, Sibonga, and San Fernando.
She needs to go around with the Yaphas in the third district and take advantage of the fact that Toledo City Mayor Sonny Osmeña is supporting the MAGDAV team. Magpale should also campaign with Congressman Calderon (seventh district), especially Badian, where the mayor shifted to Garcia, and in Dalaguete where the mayor is running for Congress under the GASA team. Magpale should hold a big rally with the Gicas in Garcia's hometown Dumanjug.
Davide should campaign more in the north where his opponent Daphne Salimbangon and the latter's father, incumbent congressman Benhur, have advantage. He should also go to the grassroots in towns where the mayors are for the Garcia-Salimbangon team, like Dumanjug, Dalaguete, Barili, and Badian.
Time is running out and Davide should focus there, in addition to the biggest cities and towns in the first district. The gentle and dignified former chief justice “Dodong Jun” Davide is much loved in the second, seventh, and first districts. Junjun should be happy his dad is consolidating their supporters in those strategic and vote-rich constituencies. Noy Pabling Garcia is also doing that for Gwen and his sons, Nelson, PJ, and Marlon.
In the same manner that the GASA team is working 18 to 20 hours a day campaigning, holding rallies and caucuses, the MAGDAV team should target their opponents in their bailiwicks. I don’t know who manage their respective campaigns, but if this were a boxing match we are now seeing the last four rounds, and this battle can be won by strategy and tactics.
Campaigns should be scientific, systematic, orderly, with strategic goals and tactical objectives. Someone must be on top and deciding on strategic and tactical moves.
By this time about 40% of the voting populace in the province are still undecided. I feel that of the 60% who are committed, the MAGDAV team has 35%, being the incumbents, and the GASA team only 25%. The crucial target is the remaining 40% undecided.
If the MAGDAV team gets one half of the undecided, then Magpale and Davide will win the coming elections with a small margin. But, to be very sure, it should target for a total of 70% overall. A tall order, but it can be done. Their campaign strategists and tacticians should use their coconuts.
- Latest
