One or two more?

Believe it or not, UP now has a twice-to-beat advantage over Ateneo in the UAAP men’s basketball finals and nobody would’ve imagined the Blue Eagles in this predicament when they raced to a 13-0 record in the double round eliminations. But after the Fighting Maroons took Game 1 of the best-of-three title series at the MOA Arena last Sunday, UP can wrap up the title in the same venue today. If Ateneo wins Game 2, it will be a winner-take-all confrontation on Friday.

UP denied Ateneo a sweep by scoring a major upset, 84-83, to close the elims. The stats showed a major disparity in free throws as the Maroons shot 23 of 30 and the Eagles, 9 of 16 from the line. Although Ateneo committed only 10 turnovers compared to UP’s 11, the Maroons had more turnover points, 15-8. UP also knocked down one more triple, 7-6 but paid a hefty price for the gamble as it launched 31 shots from beyond the arc while Ateneo heaved only 19.

The loss sent Ateneo to the semis where the Eagles, enjoying a twice-to-beat edge, needed only one chance to scuttle FEU. UP, in contrast, needed two opportunities to outlast stubborn La Salle to arrange the finals showdown. Dropping Game 1 to UP means Ateneo has now lost two of its last three outings while the Maroons have won two of their last three. Trends, however, aren’t a clear indication of which team will eventually wind up on top of the roost. Ateneo is just as capable of winning two in a row over UP as the Maroons are over the Eagles. The pressure is on Ateneo to survive but coach Tab Baldwin lives for moments like this. He’s been in worse situations in high-level leagues so it’s not an unfamiliar position. UP, on the other hand, can’t be complacent, thinking the Maroons have two chances to win one for the championship. Losing Game 2 will shift the momentum dramatically in Ateneo’s favor for Game 3 so coach Goldwin Monteverde must realize that despite a twice-to-beat advantage, the Maroons must treat today’s contest like a do-or-die battle.

If UP pulled off a miracle in eliminating La Salle and another miracle in taking Game 1, it will be three’s a charm for Monteverde in case the Maroons win today.  Is it the Maroons’ destiny to win their first UAAP crown since Season 49 in 1986? Or is Ateneo marking a four-peat to stamp its claim on a dynasty?

In Game 1, Ateneo registered 26 turnovers and missed 14 free throws. UP had a lower field goal percentage, 33.7 to Ateneo’s 40.6, but because of the Eagles’ turnovers, the Maroons had 14 more attempts from the floor. UP was sharper from the stripe, hitting 20 of 24 to Ateneo’s 11 of 25. But the Maroons still needed a triple from James Spencer to force OT. The Eagles crumbled in extension as only Ange Kouame scored with four points but bled on a 1 of 4 clip. Ateneo shot 11.1 percent from the floor and UP, 42.9 percent in the last five minutes.