Olympic pandemic bonanza?

There seems to be a growing sentiment that the Tokyo Olympics will bring a bonanza of medals – and at least one gold – to the Philippines. In the past, national sports officials blindly made predictions to grab headlines with no data to back them up. But now, the great equalizer COVID-19 has apparently made the rich poorer and the poor, richer to some degree, even with final Olympic qualifiers still to come in March through June. Given how a lot of details are still up in the air, let’s see how all this may benefit the country.

First, the projection on the number of Filipino athletes who will end up qualifying for Tokyo has risen dramatically. From 12 to 15, Philippine Olympic Committee officials now believe the number is closer to 22 or more. The country qualified a record 16 participants to London in 2012. Why is this? Most countries stopped training. Any advantage other countries may have had over the Philippines has been partly diminished by quarantine rules that have prevented many athletes from training. Meanwhile, our four early Olympic qualifiers have been training non-stop in whichever country they happened to have been stranded in. They have also been able to train without distraction and with exclusive attention on them from their coaches.

Secondly, many elite athletes from other countries may skip the Olympics altogether. This does not just mean NBA players, but those who already have big endorsements all over the world, particularly in open sports. There are no clear protocols on how the Games will be conducted, or even if there will be crowds. Some athletes are skittish about being swabbed (and possibly poked in the brain) by strangers every day, and other health risks. No one is sure how any vaccine (which, by the way, are all still only under Emergency Use Authorization and not fully safe) will affect them. There is very real fear of internal damage or even death. If I still have a long career and life ahead of me, is one event (even a big one like this Olympics) worth the risk?

Also, there is a disproportionate number of Filipino-Japanese athletes. Three judokas (Kiyomi Watanabe, Keisei Nakano, Shugen Nakano) and karateka Junna Tsukii trace their roots to Japan and are competing in Japanese sports, sports that are taught to youth in school in Japan. Golfer Yuka Saso will also likely draw local support there. The Philippines has other international athletes like track athletes Eric Cray and Kristina Knott and BMX rider Daniel Caluag. They and weightlifter Hidilyn Diaz, skateboarder Margie Didal and boxer Eumir Marcial are strong contenders to medal. Boxing, karate, taekwondo, shotput, canoe-kayak, archery and cycling also have aces to play.

Of course, all the athletes will still have to contend with health and security protocols, the vagaries of scheduling, biased officiating. and the usual unpredictable issues that may pop up. But – though it sounds unfair and a bit demeaning – there will be less competition. And there will be more Filipinos in contention. It only takes the luck of the draw and one good streak to snatch that perennially elusive gold. This could be our athletes’ best chance to break through and fire up the country.