Looking at the Ateneo-UST UAAP finals matchup

Aldin Ayo versus Tab Baldwin.

The top offensive team (UST) versus the top defensive team (Ateneo).

It’s a high-octane offense against a meticulous and cunning offense.

Something is going to give. Who it is, we will find out after Game One.

In the meantime, let’s break it down.

Aldin Ayo and his Bomb Squad

When Ayo coached Letran to a title five years ago, he was praised for raising the intensity level of the Knights that saw them upend six-peat seeking San Beda. Although he led La Salle to a title a year later, that team was put together by its previous coach Juno Sauler and had the incredible Ben Mbala and was ripe for a title run. And yet, two years later, they fell to Baldwin’s Blue Eagles. 

It is easy to dismiss a coach who inherits a very good team and won it all. We’ve heard pundits point to Joel Banal winning with Joe Lipa’s team in Ateneo. Or even Franz Pumaren picking up a team that was put together by Jong Uichico. In recent years, San Beda saw a series of coaches come in and not miss a beat after Nash Racela put the team together that Frankie Lim steered them to a series of championships followed by Ronnie Magsanoc, Jamike Jarin and Boyet Fernandez.

But on the other hand, it isn’t easy selling a new system, adapting to a new coach, and what his philosophies or rotation is. So you have to give credit to Pumaren, Banal, Lim and everyone else for winning. 

Yes, Ayo is a damn good coach and what he has done with UST in two short years has elevated him into a higher level. Easily, he is the brightest young Filipino coach in the collegiate and amateur ranks.

In my opinion, Ayo has buckled down to work and really teach and coach this year. In his second and last year with La Salle, he brought his roughhousing tactics to the team and that somewhat blunted whatever praise he received. His Growling Tigers have mostly played the game the way it should be played.

His team doesn’t press as much, but like recent UST teams, they are overpowering on offense. These past two seasons, they have bombarded foes like no other.

Season 81: 121/426 in 14 matches
Season 82: 183/618 in 17 matches

The saying is “live by the 3-point shot, die by the three-point shot”. UST also got lucky because UP self-destructed. They were also missing many of their attempts from beyond the arc, but got the one that really mattered. 

It is easy to say that one has to shoot well in order to win. UST for sure has a lot of players who can put that ball in the hoop beginning with season MVP Soulemane Chabi Yo then Renzo Subido, Mark Nonoy, CJ Cansino, Brent Paraiso and Rhenz Abando. They have that scoring force inside in Chabi Yo and they parade all these shooters outside the 3-point arc and they try to beat you into submission with their firepower. UST along with La Salle and UP are the only teams with at least three players with over 150 field goal attempts (UP could have had four but Juan Gomez de Liaño was two attempts shy of that number). Ateneo in sharp contrast has only one — Thirdy Ravena.

For UST to win this, they must make their three point shots and snatch Game One.

Tab Baldwin’s challenge of battling court rust

The challenge for Baldwin is how the Blue Eagles come out after a lengthy layoff. Sports history has shown us that the team with the long layoff usually comes out flat. UP was flat in Game One against UST and they paid for it. Yes, the Blue Eagles played San Beda and Talk ‘N Text but at this point, we aren’t sure if that helps. 

Having said that, Ateneo prepared for UST and not UP. So let us see what tricks Baldwin has up his sleeve. If Ateneo comes out razor sharp, then UST is going to be in a whole lot of trouble; the operative word being if.

UST played a 10-man rotation in their last three games while Baldwin has used nearly his whole bench for every game for the entire season.

In the last meeting, Ateneo bottled up Chabi Yo and that allowed them to key onto the Growling Tigers’ shooters. Ayo will look to find ways to get his center going and to free up his shooters. How everyone adjusts to each other’s schemes is important.

Yes, there is pressure on Ateneo. A perfect season could be for naught without that title. At this point, I don’t think they care about the perfection. That is a bonus. Winning it all is what they want.