Alaska assured of playoff

Regardless of which teams win in the final doubleheader of the PBA Commissioner’s Cup eliminations at the Smart Araneta Coliseum tomorrow night, Alaska is guaranteed a playoff for the eighth and last quarterfinal slot. The Aces will battle either Phoenix or Meralco, depending on the results of tomorrow’s games.

It will be San Miguel Beer against Meralco and Magnolia against TNT to close out the elimination schedule at the Big Dome. TNT and NorthPort are assured of a twice-to-beat advantage in the quarters. If TNT beats Magnolia, it will clinch pole position and play the No. 8 team. If TNT loses, it will slide down to No. 2 by virtue of NorthPort’s 110-86 win over the KaTropa in the elims. Right now, TNT is No. 1 at 9-1 and NorthPort, No. 2 at 9-2.

If San Miguel beats Meralco, the Bolts will drop to No. 11 in the standings with a 3-8 record. Columbian and NLEX wound up the elims with similar 3-8 records. In a three-way tie, Columbian has the edge with a +6 factor. Next is Meralco with a 0 factor and last is NLEX with a -6 factor. That will arrange a playoff for eighth spot between Phoenix and Alaska, both with 4-7 records. 

Phoenix beat Alaska, 78-76, in the elims. Both are on losing skids. The Pulse Fuel Masters have lost three in a row and Alaska, five. Two of Phoenix’ setbacks were by only two points – 100-98 to Columbian and 87-85 to NLEX. Alaska dropped two of the Aces’ last five defeats by two – 78-76 to Phoenix and 86-84 to Rain or Shine. So despite the slides, they’ve been competitive.

In the last five games, Alaska has rotated imports Nino Johnson, Chris Daniels and Diamon Simpson with no success. Coach Alex Compton, however, has a golden opportunity to turn things around if Alaska manages to beat Phoenix or Meralco and squeeze into the playoffs. For Phoenix, coach Louie Alas has struggled without the suspended Calvin Abueva and the injured L. A. Revilla (fractured foot). Since Abueva’s exit, the Fuel Masters are 3-6 and since Revilla’s departure, their record is 2-4. The reward for the playoff survivor will be a twice-to-win disadvantage against either TNT or NorthPort in the quarters. 

If Meralco beats San Miguel, the Bolts gain a playoff for the eighth spot against Alaska. So it’s do-or-die for coach Norman Black’s squad. A loss to San Miguel will mean outright elimination but a win will open one last chance to catch the playoff bus. A win by Meralco will raise its record to 4-7, tying Alaska and Phoenix. In the three-way tie, Phoenix has the lowest factor, -4. Alaska and Meralco are tied with the same +2 factor. Meralco has lost its last five contests so a reversal is overdue. Like Alaska, the Bolts lined up three different imports over those last five games which were all losses – Jimmie Taylor, Gani Lawal and Delroy James. More than the import, Meralco will need a superhuman effort from its locals, especially Chris Newsome, Cliff Hodge and Baser Amer, to snap San Miguel’s three-game win streak.

If Magnolia wins, the Hotshots move up to No. 5 with a 6-5 record and will face No. 4 Ginebra (7-4) in a best-of-three “Manila Clasico” series in the quarters. If Magnolia loses and San Miguel wins, the Hotshots drop to No. 7 at 5-6 and will face No. 3 Blackwater in a best-of-three series. If Magnolia loses and Meralco wins, the Hotshots will tie Rain or Shine and San Miguel with identical 5-6 marks. In the three-way tie, San Miguel drops to No. 7 with a -34 factor, Rain or Shine takes No. 6 with a +2 factor and Magnolia settles for No. 5 with a +32 factor.

At the moment, the only sure things in the race to the playoffs are: TNT and NorthPort will enjoy a twice-to-beat advantage in the first round of the quarters, Blackwater is firmly at No. 3, Ginebra is firmly at No. 4, Alaska will figure in a playoff for the eighth spot against either Phoenix or Meralco and Columbian and NLEX are out of contention. There will be one playoff game involving Alaska on Friday and the result will determine the pairings of the quarterfinals and which four teams won’t make it to the playoffs.