Wild, wild finish

Four games and two playing days are left in the elimination schedule of the PBA Philippine Cup and 11 of 12 teams are still in contention for the playoffs, making for a wild race to the finish line. Blackwater is the only team with no chance of advancing, locked in the cellar at 2-9.

No matter the outcome of the last four games, the first two spots are sealed for Phoenix (9-2) and Rain Or Shine (8-3). They’ll tow a twice-to-beat advantage in the quarterfinals with the Fuel Masters taking on No. 8 and the Elasto Painters facing No. 7. Barangay Ginebra has a chance to move up to 8-3, tying Rain Or Shine but if that happens, the quotient system will apply to break the deadlock and the Painters enjoy the edge by virtue of their 83-80 win over the Kings in Calasiao last Jan. 26. So even if Ginebra winds up 8-3, Rain Or Shine won’t be bumped off at No. 2.

Depending on the results of the final four contests, there could be multiple logjams for eighth spot. It’s also possible that no playoff will be necessary. Under the rules, one knockout game will be scheduled to settle ties for eighth. That means if there are three involved in a deadlock for No. 8, the team with the lowest quotient drops out and the other two figure in a playoff. If there are four involved in a deadlock for No. 8, the two teams with the lowest quotients are struck out and the other two face off. Ties for any spot, other than eighth, will be resolved by the quotient system.

The remaining games are NorthPort against Alaska and Ginebra against Meralco at the Smart Araneta Coliseum on Wednesday then NLEX against Magnolia and Ginebra against NorthPort, also at the Big Dome, on April 3. The reason for the one-week break is to make way for the All-Star Weekend in Calasiao.

Here are six possible scenarios.

First, Ginebra beats Meralco and NorthPort, NorthPort beats Alaska and NLEX beats Magnolia. The standings would be – No. 1 Phoenix 9-2, No. 2 Rain Or Shine 8-3, No. 3 Ginebra 8-3, No. 4 TNT 7-4, No. 5 San Miguel Beer 7-4, No. 6 NLEX 5-6, No. 7 Magnolia 5-6, (tie for No. 8) Columbian 4-7, NorthPort 4-7, Alaska 4-7, No. 11 Meralco 3-8, No. 12 Blackwater 2-9. One of three teams – Columbian, NorthPort and Alaska – will drop out with the lowest quotient and the other two will play off for No. 8. The NorthPort-Alaska game on Wednesday will decide the quotients to break the tie. Since Columbian lost to Alaska by 22 and beat NorthPort by 10, the Dyip is -12. The Aces must lose to NorthPort by at least 35 to be dislodged from a playoff by Columbian.

Second, Ginebra beats Meralco and NorthPort, NorthPort beats Alaska and Magnolia beats NLEX. Magnolia improves to No. 6 at 6-5 with Columbian, NorthPort, Alaska and NLEX tied for No. 7 at 4-7. Of the four tied at No. 7, the team with the highest quotient takes No. 7 and the team with the lowest quotient is eliminated, dropping to No. 10. The remaining teams will play off for No. 8. 

Third, Ginebra loses to Meralco and NorthPort, Alaska beats NorthPort and Magnolia beats NLEX. Ginebra will finish No. 5. Magnolia will end up No. 6 and Alaska No. 7. Tied for No. 8 will be Columbian, NorthPort, Meralco and NLEX. Struck out will be NorthPort at -8 and Meralco at -2 with Columbian +1 and NLEX +9 playing off for No. 8.

Fourth, Ginebra beats Meralco but loses to NorthPort, NorthPort beats Alaska and Magnolia beats NLEX. Ginebra will finish No. 3, TNT No. 4, San Miguel No. 5, Magnolia No. 6 and NorthPort No. 7. Tied for No. 8 will be Columbian, NLEX and Alaska. Columbian will be eliminated at -32, leaving Alaska +1 and NLEX +31 to play off for No. 8.

Fifth, Ginebra beats Meralco but loses to NorthPort, NorthPort beats Alaska and NLEX beats Magnolia. Ginebra will finish No. 3, TNT No. 4, San Miguel No. 5, NLEX No. 6 and Magnolia No. 7. Tied for No. 8 will be NorthPort, Alaska and Columbian. The outcome of the NorthPort-Alaska game on Wednesday will decide how to break the tie.

Sixth, Ginebra loses to NorthPort and Meralco, Alaska beats NorthPort and NLEX beats Magnolia. Ginebra will finish No. 5 at 6-5 with Alaska, NLEX and Magnolia tied for No. 6 at 5-6. The NLEX-Magnolia game on April 3 will settle the quotients to determine which teams end up No. 6, No. 7 and No. 8. Columbian will wind up No. 9, Meralco No. 10 and NorthPort No. 11. In a tie for No. 9, Columbian is +11, Meralco +2 and NorthPort -13. In this case, no playoff will be necessary.